US wakes up to Pakistan’s minerals after Trump-Munir-Sharif 'secret' talks: Where does this leave India?

In a strategic pivot amid faltering US-India trade ties, Pakistan has secured a high-profile role in America’s critical minerals agenda. During the closed-door meeting in Washington between US President Donald Trump, Pakistan’s Army Chief Field Marshal Asim Munir and Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif earlier this year, the ground was laid for an expansive minerals deal.

Two months later, the US-backed company CEO Christopher Gerteisen of Nova Minerals arrived in Pakistan to formalise a memorandum of understanding (MoU) on rare earths and other strategic minerals with Himalayan Earth Exploration (HEE).

Gerteisen described the venture as “certainly the most comfortable, the most exciting, the most trustworthy kind of agreement. Today, we sign an agreement. Tomorrow, we get to work.” Pakistan’s HEE and Nova have agreed to explore antimony, rare earth elements and gold while building processing and training infrastructure.

The MoU, signed in early September between Pakistan’s military-linked Frontier Works Organisation and Missouri-based US Strategic Metals (USSM), involves an initial investment of around $500 million and aims to fast-track export of minerals including antimony, copper, tungsten and rare-earth elements “immediately” while building processing plants in Pakistan. Analysts say this move reflects Islamabad’s strategy of leveraging its touted mineral wealth to attract US investment and international legitimacy.

However, sceptics warn that the deal appears to offer Pakistan a short-term lifeline, while leaving the long-term strategic calculus in doubt. Pakistan’s economy, weighed down by more than US$130 billion in external debt, is being pitched as an asset-rich but governance-weak state, where unchecked extraction risks repeating past failures. One Pakistani senator lambasted Munir’s role in the White House spectacle, calling it “a big, branded store – a manager watched on happily as a shopkeeper tells a customer to buy a big, glittery thing from him.”

The optics of the mineral pitch at the White House illustrate Pakistan’s increasing dependence on transactional diplomacy rather than substantive security reform. Washington’s interest in diversifying mineral supply chains away from China is real. But for Pakistan, the spotlight brings accountability risks. The concentration of deals in mineral-rich but volatile provinces like Balochistan raises fresh concerns about investor risk, local consent and strategic sovereignty.

Why India should be concerned

This development signals more than just a commercial agreement: it positions Pakistan as a strategic partner for the US in resource security and supply-chain diversification away from China. For India, already dealing with tariffs and trade tension with the United States, this shift may tilt regional dynamics. Access to Pakistani mineral wealth gives Islamabad a bargaining chip; for India it is a wake-up call about economic vulnerability and strategic alignment. The deal also hands Munir and the Pakistan military-civil complex international leverage at a time when domestic governance deficits remain unaddressed.