How India’s flood warnings despite IWT suspension helped Pakistan evacuate and save 150,000 lives | Explained

Flood-affected people evacuate on a boat amid rising water levels after heavy rainfall in the Haqu Wala village of Pakistan's Kasur district on August 24, 2025. (Photo by Arif ALI / AFP)

India’s decision to issue urgent flood warnings to Pakistan earlier this week has helped authorities across the border carry out mass evacuations, preventing what could have been a catastrophic loss of life in Punjab province. Despite the suspension of routine water data exchanges under the Indus Waters Treaty following the April 22 Pahalgam terror attack, New Delhi chose to share real-time alerts on “humanitarian grounds” as relentless monsoon rains forced it to release excess water from key reservoirs.

A timely warning

According to Indian government sources, the first flood alert was communicated to Islamabad on Monday through diplomatic channels. It was followed by two more warnings on Tuesday and Wednesday, highlighting the “high probability” of flooding in the Tawi and Ravi rivers. India cautioned that several dams, including Madhopur and Thein, had reached dangerous levels due to heavy rainfall and sluice gates had to be opened to prevent dam breaches.

These messages, officials stressed, were sent to help Pakistan prepare for the overflow, even though India had suspended formal hydrological cooperation under the 1960 Indus Waters Treaty after Pakistani terrorists killed 26 people in Pahalgam earlier this year.

“The gates of some dams had to be opened due to excessive rains in Indian regions. Sharing this with Pakistan was necessary to avoid the loss of life and property,” an Indian source said.

Pakistan moves swiftly

The alerts prompted Pakistan’s Provincial Disaster Management Authority (PDMA) to issue urgent evacuation orders in Punjab province, the country’s agricultural heartland. Satellite assessments had already shown the Thein Dam was 97% full, but confirmation from India added urgency to the measures.

By Wednesday, Pakistani authorities had moved more than 150,000 people out of flood-prone areas, including nearly 35,000 who voluntarily left their homes after the warnings. Evacuations were carried out in hundreds of villages located along the Ravi, Sutlej, and Chenab rivers, with the help of army troops. Relief camps were set up with food, medicines, and temporary shelters for the displaced.

“The flood situation is grave. The next 48 hours will be critical,” said Irfan Ali Kathia, a senior PDMA official. Deputy Commissioner Saba Asghar Ali, overseeing operations near Pasrur city, said 16 villages were currently at risk, but advance arrangements had eased the crisis.

Rising waters on both sides

The intense monsoon has battered both countries. In Jammu and Kashmir, incessant rainfall has caused rivers to swell, while in Punjab, the Sutlej, Beas, and Ravi are already in spate. Authorities in Jammu were forced to open the gates of reservoirs to prevent overflows.

In Pakistan, the toll has been severe. More than 802 people have died in flooding since the start of the monsoon season in late June, nearly half of them this month alone. Punjab province, which is home to half of Pakistan’s 240 million people, has been the hardest hit, with farms, villages, and towns inundated. Evacuations have reduced casualties, but officials warn that further rainfall could make conditions worse in the coming days.

Climate strains old rivalries

The episode highlights how climate pressures can temporarily cut through the bitterness of India-Pakistan ties. While relations remain fraught following the Pahalgam attack and India’s suspension of the Indus data-sharing mechanism, New Delhi’s decision to alert Islamabad demonstrates that humanitarian considerations can sometimes override hostility.

Kazim Raza Pirzada, Punjab province’s irrigation minister, admitted that changing weather patterns are making such cooperation more necessary. “Due to climate change, eastern rivers are experiencing heavier rainfall compared to the past,” he said.