America’s AMRAAM missile deal with Pakistan: Why India should worry and how it could shift South Asia’s power balance

AIM-120 AMRAAM missiles to be sold to NATO allies, Taiwan, Pakistan, and Israel, showing a missile mounted on an F-16 fighter jet. (File Image)

The growing “bromance” between the United States and Pakistan appears to have entered a dangerous new phase. After striking a controversial rare earths deal and offering Washington operational rights over a port in the Arabian Sea, Islamabad is now being rewarded with an American arms contract that risks upsetting South Asia’s fragile military balance.

The US Department of War has reportedly cleared Pakistan’s inclusion in a deal for advanced AIM-120D-3 air-to-air missiles, known as AMRAAMs. While Pakistan hails this as a sign of restored trust, history tells a different story. Every major phase of US-Pakistan cooperation, from the Cold War to the War on Terror, has eventually ended in acrimony, mistrust, and sanctions. This latest partnership risks replaying that same cycle, with far higher stakes for India and regional stability.

The new deal: Missiles for loyalty

According to documents notified by the US Department of War, Pakistan is among 35 countries approved to receive the AIM-120D-3 Advanced Medium-Range Air-to-Air Missiles (AMRAAMs) by 2030. These are among the most advanced weapons in the American arsenal.

The deal has triggered speculation about upgrades to Pakistan’s F-16 fleet, as the AMRAAMs are compatible only with those jets. The missile was previously used by the Pakistan Air Force (PAF) in 2019 to down an Indian MiG-21 flown by Wing Commander Abhinandan Varthaman.

The AIM-120, developed by US defence giant Raytheon, represents a significant leap over its predecessors, the AIM-7 Sparrow series. Smaller, faster, and smarter, the AMRAAM uses active radar and onboard computers to lock onto multiple targets simultaneously, allowing the pilot to “fire and forget.” It can engage both air and surface targets, making it a flexible and lethal weapon system.

A familiar pattern: The US backs Pakistan, again

Defence publication Quwa reports that Pakistan will receive the AIM-120C8 export variant, replacing its ageing C5 stock acquired in 2010. The deal follows a series of high-level meetings between Pakistani Air Chief Zaheer Ahmed Baber Sidhu and senior American officials in Washington. For Pakistan, this represents a long-awaited military upgrade; for the US, it signals a renewed attempt to rebuild leverage in South Asia through Pakistan.

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But such partnerships have rarely ended well. As Moneycontrol recently observed, every US-Pakistan alliance -- from their 1950s Cold War alignment to their 1980s anti-Soviet collaboration and the post-9/11 counterterror campaign -- has collapsed under the weight of duplicity. Each phase began with promises of “strategic cooperation” and ended with Washington accusing Islamabad of betrayal and terrorism sponsorship.

2019 revisited: The F-16 and AMRAAM controversy

The sale raises memories of 2019, when Pakistan used F-16s armed with AMRAAMs against Indian military targets in Jammu and Kashmir. India presented the US with proof that these American-supplied weapons had been used in violation of end-user agreements. Despite Pakistan’s denials, debris recovered from the missiles confirmed their use. The incident embarrassed Washington and exposed the risk of arming a state with a long record of proxy warfare and nuclear brinkmanship.

A strategic shift against India

The timing of the deal is telling. Since Donald Trump’s return to the White House, Pakistan’s outreach to Washington has deepened rapidly. Islamabad credited Trump with brokering the ceasefire that followed India’s Operation Sindoor in May and even went as far as nominating him for the Nobel Peace Prize. “Pakistan credited US President Donald Trump for arranging a ceasefire,” a senior official noted, “and topped it by proposing his name for the Nobel Peace Prize.”

Trump has responded warmly, hosting Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif and Army Chief Field Marshal Asim Munir at the Oval Office in September. Both sides “lavished praise on each other,” according to US reports. Meanwhile, Trump’s administration has imposed heavy tariffs on Indian goods -- up to 50 percent --creating a perception that Washington is tilting toward Islamabad at New Delhi’s expense.

Pakistan’s expanding arsenal

The US missile sale comes as Pakistan continues to deepen defence ties with China. During the May conflict with India, Islamabad deployed several Chinese systems, including the PL-15 beyond-visual-range missile and the HQ-9 air-defence system. According to SIPRI, Chinese weapons account for 81 percent of Pakistan’s total arms imports over the past five years.

Now, with American missiles and Chinese platforms in its arsenal, Pakistan is attempting to diversify its military partnerships while signaling strategic indispensability to both powers. However, such a dual-track policy has historically backfired, leaving Pakistan overdependent, indebted, and diplomatically isolated.

Why this should worry India

For India, the deal represents more than just a weapons upgrade for its adversary. It underscores a worrying revival of US indulgence toward a state that has repeatedly used terrorism and deceit as instruments of policy. The AIM-120 sale enhances Pakistan’s air combat capability and could embolden its military establishment to escalate tensions.

History suggests the outcome is predictable. The US-Pakistan alliance has always begun with optimism and ended in regret. As Washington again places its bets on Islamabad, India would do well to remember that every American embrace of Pakistan has eventually produced a backlash -- one that destabilised not only the region but also US interests themselves.