MC EXCLUSIVE Apple sizzling hot in India despite heatwave, to ship 2.8 million iPhones in Q2

iPhone India

Apple is set for strong double-digit growth in India in the second quarter of this year as well, beating a sharp market downturn brought about by severe heatwaves across key regions and a seasonal dip in sales.

After a record-breaking Q1 with 3 million iPhones shipped, Apple shipments are expected to climb more than 20 percent from the year-ago period to 2.8 million units this quarter, bolstering its ranking among the top five smartphone brands in India, IDC data exclusively available with Moneycontrol shows.

iPhone manufacturer’s stellar run continues at a time when the smartphone market is expected to see a 3–4 percent drop in shipments in Q2 at 33–34 million units from the year-ago period.

Extreme heat waves in key regions, restricting retail foot traffic, coupled with seasonal slowdown are the two big reasons for the decline.

“While the festive quarter may offer some improvement, the current outlook for year-on-year growth remains negative,” Upasna Joshi, research manager at IDC, told Moneycontrol.

The customer sentiment is low, further impacted by ongoing heat waves in key regions. The sentiment is low despite smartphone brands’ focus on the offline channel, she said.

Apple’s market pie is getting bigger

“iPhones are expected to register strong double-digit growth of over 20 percent with shipments ranging upward of 2.8 million in Q2, while Android continues to decline by more than 5 percent YoY,” Joshi added.

Demand for discounted pricing and financing options on iPhones remains strong, helping drive the market.

Following a slow first quarter for the overall market when shipments dropped 6 percent YoY to 32 million units, April saw some recovery at 12 million. New product launches in March and April across all price points helped improve the numbers, though consumer confidence remains low, Joshi said.

“Apple and Motorola witnessed the highest year-on-year growth amongst the top brands in India,” she said.

IDC expects the ranking of top brands —Vivo, Samsung, Oppo, Realme, Apple, Motorola, Xiaomi, and POCO — to remain unchanged from the March quarter.

Smartphone brands are strengthening their offline presence by increasing engagement with retailers and distributors, deploying more in-store promoters, and expanding into smaller towns.

Online not so hot

Online shipments continue to struggle. While the annual 2025 market is expected to decline by mid-single digit, online channel share is expected to shrink from 49 percent in 2024 to anywhere between 42 and44 percent, with a decline in shipments, Joshi said.

“On the other hand, offline channel shipments are expected to show moderate single-digit growth annually as brands try to penetrate deeper into smaller towns and cities via an omnichannel approach,” she said.

Brands are focusing on discounting to push sales and are constantly engaging with offline retailers and distributors to support this strategy. “Sales will continue to be muted until the festive season, when the market is expected to bounce back,” Joshi said

Retailers Moneycontrol spoke to said the demand for new smartphones has dropped significantly. With sales weakening, many retailers are concerned that the continued decline could impact their net income.

Most retailers are now focused on selling iPhones, which offer better margins and remain in strong demand.

India’s smartphone market is headed for a contraction in 2025 after two years of steady growth, dragged down by rising unemployment, persistent inflation, and weak consumer sentiment amid economic uncertainty, IDC said on May 19 in its revised outlook which was exclusively reported by Moneycontrol.

Smartphone shipments in India are projected to fall to between 145–147 million units in 2025, down 3–4 percent from 151 million in 2024, marking a single-digit year-on-year decline, it said.

Earlier forecasts, including by IDC, had predicted low single-digit growth for the year.

Another market tracker, Counterpoint Research, recently revised down its 2025 global smartphone shipment growth forecast to 1.9 percent YoY from the previous 4.2 percent YoY, in light of renewed uncertainties surrounding US tariffs.

It also revised India's outlook, which is expected to see a marginal growth of 2 percent  in shipments even as North America and China are projected to contract.