'City-killer' asteroid 2024 YR4 now unlikely to hit Earth, says ESA

Asteroid 2024 YR4: New Predictions Suggest Possible Moon Collision in 2032. (Image: AI generated)

The fear of a massive asteroid impact has eased. A football field-sized asteroid once seen as a threat is now unlikely to hit Earth in 2032. Scientists have closely tracked its path, and new data shows the risk has dropped significantly.

Threat level reduced
A week ago, asteroid 2024 YR4 held the highest recorded impact probability. NASA estimated a 3.1 percent chance of collision, while the European Space Agency (ESA) placed it at 2.8 percent. However, new observations from telescopes worldwide have refined its trajectory. The ESA now states the impact risk has fallen to just 0.001 percent.

The Torino Impact Hazard Scale, which measures asteroid threats, initially placed 2024 YR4 at level three out of ten. It has now been downgraded to zero. The asteroid, discovered in December, measures between 40 and 90 metres across. A direct impact could devastate a city, but calculations now suggest it will pass Earth safely on 22 December 2032.

Ongoing monitoring and planetary defence
Despite the reduced risk, scientists will continue monitoring 2024 YR4. The James Webb Space Telescope is set to observe it in the coming months, ESA confirmed.

Even if the asteroid had been on a collision course, Earth has defensive measures in place. In 2022, NASA’s DART mission successfully altered an asteroid’s path by crashing a spacecraft into it. Experts believe similar technology could prevent future impacts.

ESA’s planetary defence head, Richard Moissl, called this asteroid tracking effort “an exciting and educational exercise.” He praised early detection but said improvements are still needed. New telescopes, including the Vera Rubin and Flyeye, will soon boost asteroid detection. Europe’s planned early-warning mission, NEOMIR, will also enhance monitoring.

The last time a large asteroid posed a similar risk was in 2004. The asteroid Apophis briefly had a 2.7 percent chance of hitting Earth in 2029. Further observations later ruled out the danger, much like with 2024 YR4.