Why the Ukraine war is shifting to drones, deep strikes, and economic attrition

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Russia’s refusal to accept a cease-fire and the collapse of a planned peace summit in Budapest have deepened fears that the war in Ukraine will stretch on for years. President Vladimir Putin, convinced that time favours Moscow, continues to bet on exhausting Ukraine’s economy and morale. For Kyiv, surrendering strategic cities in the eastern Donetsk region remains politically unthinkable. President Volodymyr Zelensky’s government faces immense pressure at home not to concede to Russian ultimatums that would almost certainly unravel any fragile truce, the Wall Street Journal reported.

A new phase defined by drones and distance

After nearly four years of grinding combat, the war’s nature has changed. Drones and long-range missiles now matter more than tanks or trenches. Ukraine’s expanding drone program has enabled it to strike oil refineries and depots deep inside Russia—attacks that have already triggered fuel shortages and rattled the Kremlin. Western sanctions have compounded the strain, turning energy infrastructure into both a symbol and a vulnerability of Russian power.

Ukraine’s mirror strategy: collapse Moscow first

Analysts in Kyiv describe Ukraine’s evolving goal as a mirror image of Putin’s own: to collapse Russia’s economy before Ukraine’s. Long-range strikes are central to this strategy, aimed at making the war too costly for Moscow to sustain. “Russia’s vastness has become a vulnerability,” said retired U.S. Army Lt. Gen. Ben Hodges, noting that Ukraine can now hit oil terminals, refineries, and military factories once considered safe.

Moscow’s counterattack on Ukraine’s cities

In response, Russia has renewed its bombardment of Ukraine’s energy grid. The Kremlin hopes to freeze Ukrainian cities into submission this winter—a repeat of the failed blackout campaign of 2022–23. Yet, despite severe hardship, Ukraine’s urban centres remain resilient, relying on generators, community shelters, and an unbroken sense of defiance.

Political costs mount for Putin

Putin faces a dilemma that has trapped many wartime leaders: ending the war without a clear victory risks domestic backlash. “Giving up and accepting a cease-fire is very difficult for someone who started a war with so many casualties,” said veteran diplomat Wolfgang Ischinger. Russian propaganda continues to frame the invasion as a fight against “Nazis,” but public discontent is simmering beneath the surface. Street arrests of musicians and young protesters hint at growing unease within Russia’s repressed society.

A fragile Russian economy under strain

Despite early resilience, Russia’s war economy is weakening. Sanctions and military spending have forced Moscow toward desperate measures, including money printing and budget cuts that threaten social stability. “They will no longer be able to maintain the illusion that nothing significant is going on,” said Alexandra Prokopenko, a former adviser to Russia’s central bank.

Experts warn that inflation, conscription, or welfare cuts could trigger unrest, though for now Putin appears willing to gamble everything on endurance.

The war’s uncertain future

With neither side close to capitulation, the conflict has settled into a war of exhaustion fought across physical and economic fronts. Trump’s renewed diplomatic outreach has yet to yield progress, and both Moscow and Kyiv are digging in for a long haul. As one Kyiv-based analyst put it, the outcome may depend less on territory than on which nation collapses first—Russia’s imperial ambitions or Ukraine’s resolve to remain free.