Why Donald Trump won: 5 factors that worked for former US President

does Trump’s victory actually mean good things for Indian stocks? That question falls right into Charlie Munger’s “too hard” bucket—a polite way of saying, “don’t bother, it’s a maze in there.”

The dust has settled and the phoenix that is Donald Trump has emerged from the ashes to lead America once again. The US Presidential elections, initially touted to be a race that would go down to the wire, ended up being a one-sided affair with the Republicans never looking vulnerable. In fact, Trump exceeded expectations with his 2024 performance and trounced his rival, Vice President Kamala Harris, in every swing state. The decisive victory by Trump has settled the debate on whether his 2016 win over Hillary Clinton was a "fluke". It has also signalled a determined shift to the right in America and the rejection of Democratic liberal ethos that Harris sought to champion.

The final results of the 2024 polls will give us deeper insights into what helped Trump make a remarkable comeback in US politics after facing optical and legal blowbacks in the last four years. But they will not be known for some time. For now, we are relying on exit poll data, anecdotal accounts and information from various sources to determine the factors that worked for Trump. Here are five of them:

Shifts that mattered 

Trump always enjoyed a solid support base among white evangelical and working class voters. In 2024, he also struck a chord with the Hispanic voters across the country and African-Americans in the swing states.

While Harris won the majority of these minority votes nationwide, Trump managed to improve his share of Hispanic and Black votes compared to 2020. Trump's share of Hispanic votes went up by 14 percentage points compared to 2020 and Black votes rose by 1%. In swing states like Wisconsin, Georgia and Pennsylvania, Trump's share of Black votes saw a big jump compared to 2020. Conversely, Harris' share came down compared to Biden's in the previous presidential polls.

READ: Why Kamala Harris lost: 5 reasons behind her defeat to Donald Trump

An NYT analysis shows that Trump improved on his 2020 margin in as many as 2,367 counties across the US. There was also a notable shift in counties where Black and Hispanic voters are in high numbers.

Source: NYT

According to The New York Times, some majority-Black counties in Georgia like Hancock, Talbot and Jefferson shifted entirely to Trump. “The strength of Trump’s reach into the traditional Democratic coalition of voters of color was stunning,” Daniel HoSang, a professor at Yale, told NYT.

The exit poll figures show that Trump will end up securing a bigger proportion of non-white votes than any Republican candidate in the last 40 years.

The latinos who voted for Trump in 2024 were drawn to him for a variety of reasons, including economic concerns and a desire for strong leadership on immigration and law enforcement. "I’m voting Trump because of the border, the economy, and no more wars," a voter told BBC.

Some black voters, who traditionally lean towards the Democrats, shifted towards Trump due to concerns over the economy, crime and a perception that the Democratic Party took their support for granted, Al Jazeera reported.

'It's the economy, stupid'

The term, coined by campaign manager Jim Carville, summed up Bill Clinton's triumph over George HW Bush in the 1992 presidential polls when unhappy voters snubbed the Republicans due to the prevailing recession and economic downturn in the country. The political cliche rings true, even three decades later, with voters snubbing Democrats for Republicans. In the last 5 years, inflation has soared, unemployment has risen and the economy has been on a downslope. The situation was not this grim during the Trump years when jobs actually increased and the economy was robust. Moreover, Trump's protectionist trade policies, promises to hike tariffs and bringing jobs back to US resonated with working class Americans. He also found favour with richer voters with his promise of providing tax relief. All these problems are at the top of voter concerns.

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Tough talk

Trump's tough stance on immigration, similar to his 2016 refrain, may have struck fear among the immigrants in US but it definitely resonated with a majority of the voters. An AP analysis showed that immigration is a big issue in the country, around five-times more important than it was in 2020. Trump made border security and illegal immigration his main poll plank, vowing mass deportation if he returns to power. Even in his victory speech, he said that US will seal up its borders. "We want people to come in, but they have to come in legally." A BBC report said that many Latinos across US, particularly in the swing state of Pennsylvania, were drawn to Trump's proposals to block migrants at the US-Mexico border. A Times of India report said that it's largely due to the "shut-the-door-behind-me" syndrome since the Hispanic community does not want more immigrants coming in illegally, even if they belong to the same ethnic origin.

Seizing the culture war

Kamala Harris sought to champion the causes of marginalised sections, abortion rights and women voters as a whole. Trump, conversely, found appeal among the male voters and the broader American public that is growing frustrated with the excesses of "woke culture" in US. Trump's campaign tapped into the anger and grievance against the transgender community, especially amid heated debates over issues like whether trans people can use men’s or women’s restrooms or those identifying as women can compete in women’s sporting events. An NYT report said that Trump and Republican groups spent $65 million on advertisement focusing on trans issues. This helped galvanise fence-sitters and appealed to broader white Christian male voters who comprise a vast majority of US population.

'Sloppy' Joe

Four years of anti-incumbency under Joe Biden not only dampened Kamala Harris' prospects but also gave Trump enough ammunition to paint a contrasting strongman picture. In some ways, it's similar to how PM Modi's 2014 campaign towered over the weak scam-tainted administration under Manmohan Singh. Biden's approval rating fell in the first year of office and never recovered. He faced the ignominy of American voters over issues like inflation and immigration. To top it all, the two big wars - the first in Ukraine and then the Israel-Gaza conflict - left his administration in a vulnerable position. Ahead of the polls, a chunk of Arab American voters in Michigan said they'd rather vote for a third candidate than Biden.

This did not help Kamala's campaign either. She was weighed down by Biden's legacy and perhaps entered the race a bit too late. Harris hardly any time to sharpen her views and may have made matters worse by avoiding media interviews in the early days of her campaign.