What a Trump victory would mean for Bangladesh and Sheikh Hasina

Sheikh Hasina had arrived in India on August 5, as an uprising led by students against her turned violent.

With former President Donald Trump leading his Democratic rival Kamala Harris in the latest rounds of vote count in the high-stakes US Presidential election, Trump's recent tweet condemning alleged violence against religious minorities in Bangladesh has sparked intense reactions and widespread debate on the impact of a second Donald Trump presidency on US foreign policy for Bangladesh.

The growing body of interest around Trump's broader approach to international relations in his second term and the larger picture of  expectations of him being protectionist and isolationist, has forced foreign policy experts to delve into certain imminent policy decisions regarding select countries.

In a piece in The Eurasian Times, author Salah Uddin Shoaib Choudhury, argues that Trumps remarks on the alleged violence in Bangladesh have added an unexpected international angle to an already charged campaign season.

Going on to examine the possible motivations behind Trump’s tweet, its implications for US-Bangladesh relations, and the responses from both Trump’s supporters and detractors, the author lays down that there is little reason to view Trump’s message as a mere “political stunt.” Rather, it seems more likely that these issues would become priority actions from his first day in office.

Trying to establish a link between the regime change in Dhaka and the role of groups in America's power corridors, the author adds: "During Muhammad Yunus’ September visit to the US, he received recognition from the Clinton Global Initiative, where former President Bill Clinton publicly endorsed Yunus and the 'protestors' involved in the campaign against Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina. Yunus also met Alexander Soros, son of George Soros."

The author reasons that these engagements strongly suggest that regime change in Bangladesh is a blueprint devised by the Clintons, Obama, and Soros. Yunus did not engage with any Republican leaders or candidates, including Trump. This could deter Trump and his allies from extending support to Yunus.

"If Trump wins on November 5, he could likely implement severe measures against Bangladesh, potentially including broad restrictions on the country or sanctions targeting specific individuals. Conversely, if Kamala Harris wins, her administration may not continue Biden’s policy on Bangladesh," submits the author.

In another piece in The Business Standard, author Ali Riaz, distinguished professor, Illinois State University, argues that there is also a perception that a Trump victory will embolden the Awami League. "I think that if Mr Trump wins, they might think that this is their sort of opportunity for waging more campaigns or trying to be present on the political landscape. We must remember that the perception of AL in Bangladesh would not determine US policy. The US policy would be determined by their interests," adds the academic.

"Perception is something that is not necessarily always tied to reality. Especially for the AL activists, who are living in their makebelieve world. The Hasina regime killed more than 2,000 people, and more than 20,000 people have been injured. But not a single word of remorse or repentance has been heard from the party, or their supporters or from the people who have given legitimacy to the autocratic regime, even though they are still in Bangladesh," adds Riaz.

Bangladesh's political calculations hinge on the belief that Trump may be inclined to support Sheikh Hasina, the ousted dictator who had fled to India. The latest tweet from Trump on Bangladesh's human rights situation raised the alarm level higher.