US Presidential Polls 2024: What are swing States and how they can determine the next president

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In the run-up to the November 5 US Presidential elections 2024, a key election debate between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump was held on September 10 in one of the swing states in the country, Philadelphia. This marks the face-off between Harris and Trump after Biden stepped down from the electoral race.

In the tight race, both Harris and Trump campaigns are aggressively planning their outreach programs in seven swing states-- Philadelphia, Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin which hold the key to the White House.

Let's dive into why these seven states are politically critical and its voters could turn the tables for any candidate.

What are Swing States?

Though anyone can contest U.S. presidential elections, the two-party system dominates, with third-party candidates rarely influencing recent cycles. States on the east and west coasts, with urban populations, lean Democratic, while rural states in the south, southwest, and northwest favor Republicans. These are considered "safe" states. However, "swing states" are those where both parties have a chance, as the vote share difference remains narrow in polls and past elections. Compared to others, votes from these states could tilt the electoral college tally to either side.

Which are the States likely to ‘swing’ this election?

According to the polling data by FiveThirtyEight indicates that the election is highly competitive in all the swing states, with slight variations in leads that could change by Election Day. The New York Times/Siena College poll, regarded as one of the most reliable by FiveThirtyEight, underscores the volatility in these battlegrounds, where even a small shift could determine the next president.

Let's take a look at what the data from seven swing states suggest:

Arizona

Both candidates are neck and neck in Arizona, with neither party having a clear advantage. Historically a Republican stronghold, Arizona has become a battleground in recent elections, flipping Democratic in 2020. The state’s diverse electorate, including a significant Latino population, will be crucial in determining its outcome.

Georgia

Once considered a reliably Republican state, Georgia shifted Democratic in the 2020 election. Polls now show the race too close to call, as both Harris and Trump vie for its 16 electoral votes. The state's rapidly changing demographics, especially in suburban areas, are key factors making it a critical battleground.

Pennsylvania

Pennsylvania is one of the most watched battlegrounds. Both Harris and Trump are tied in recent polls, making it a true toss-up. With its 19 electoral votes, Pennsylvania has a history of swinging between the two major parties and will likely be one of the states to watch on election night.

Michigan

Polling averages show Harris with a slight edge in Michigan. The state has flipped between Democratic and Republican candidates in recent presidential elections, making it a key battleground. A narrow Harris lead in recent surveys indicates it will be a pivotal state in this year’s contest.

Nevada

Nevada’s diverse population, including a large Latino voting bloc, makes it a closely contested state. Although Nevada has leaned Democratic in the past few elections, polling suggests a tight race. Both candidates are making significant efforts to appeal to voters in this state, with Harris looking to maintain her slight national lead.

North Carolina

North Carolina has long been a swing state, with its 15 electoral votes up for grabs in every election. Polls indicate a tight race, with both Harris and Trump focusing heavily on winning over undecided voters here. The suburban vote, in particular, could tilt the balance in North Carolina.

Wisconsin

Like Michigan, Wisconsin is showing a narrow lead for Harris, though the margins are razor-thin. This Midwestern state, which flipped to Biden in 2020, will once again be a key battleground. With its 10 electoral votes, Wisconsin could prove decisive in a close race.