US election 2024: Why Pennsylvania may decide the winner of Donald Trump vs Kamala Harris battle

Pennsylvania is the largest of the major battlegrounds, with 19 electoral votes up for grabs.

With 19 electoral votes up for grabs, the race for Pennsylvania is in full swing ahead of the US presidential elections on November 5.

According to ABC News, the latest polling averages show Republican Donald Trump running 0.2 points ahead of Harris in Pennsylvania, while Democrat Kamala Harris leads nationally by 1.4 points.

Both Harris and Trump have both visited Pennsylvania several times recently. According to political statistician Nate Silver's analysis, the next leader of the free world will probably be determined by the outcome of voting in Pennsylvania.

How did Pennsylvania vote over years?

Pennsylvania has always voted for the Democratic nominee in every presidential election from 1992 through 2012. However, in 2016, it changed. Trump narrowly flipped all three states — in Pennsylvania, largely thanks to big gains outside the major metropolitan areas of Philadelphia and Pittsburgh. In 2020, Pennsylvania once again saw an extremely close contest, but Joe Biden managed to win it by defeating Trump.

Demography of Pennsylvania

Pennsylvania’s overall population is whiter than the country’s as a whole. It is about 73 percent non-Hispanic white compared with 57 percent nationally. Pennsylvania has a divided state legislature. The state’s Democratic governor, Josh Shapiro, is widely popular in the state. Democrats also control the House, but Republicans hold the majority in the Senate. Since 1948, no Democrat has won the White House without Pennsylvania.

According to reports, Trump is a household name in Pennsylvania as his populist message continues to resonate with white Pennsylvania voters without college degrees, aging voters and blue collar workers, including many who worked in the state’s declining steel, coal and manufacturing industries. Meanwhile, Harris will need to maintain gains that Biden made in many of the suburbs around Pittsburgh and Philadelphia. Biden won in 2020 in large part from turnout in the most populous cities in the state — Philadelphia, Pittsburgh and Allentown.

Big spending

Harris and her allies have spent US$21.2 million (£16.9 million) on political ads in Pennsylvania (that’s three times what they’ve spent in Georgia, twice what they’ve spent in Michigan and 18 times what they’ve spent in North Carolina), according to The Print. Meanwhile, Trump and his allies have doled out $20.9 million in PA (twice what they’ve spent in Georgia, three times than they’ve spent in Michigan and eight times what they’ve spent in North Carolina).

Importance in 2024

The first assassination attempt of Trump occurred in the tiny town of Butler in Pennsylvania. Harris’s decision to snub popular state governor Josh Shapiro as her running mate also raised concerns and could lead to considerable second-guessing if she loses in this state. Pennsylvania also hosted the one debate between Harris and Trump.

The public is betting heavily on Trump (66.1%) over Harris (33.8%) in the national election, according to Polymarket, a cryptocurrency trading platform. In Pennsylvania, Trump had 62% support compared to Harris' 38%.