Too many, too less, too old… the many sides of the population debate

Union minister Prahlad Singh Patel has reignited the population debate after he reportedly said on May 31 that the government would soon bring in a law for population control in the world’s second-most populous country.

With a population of around 1.4 billion, according to the latest UN data, India is one of the world’s youngest countries as more than half of its people are aged below 25 years. 

A young populace is considered a demographic dividend, as the share of the working population is higher than that of non-working age people.

Will India manage to reap the demographic dividend is a matter of debate but several countries in the world are aging and are in desperate need of some young blood. As the number of births lags deaths, these countries will also struggle to replace the working-age population, jeopardising their economic growth.  

Here is a look at the countries facing some dramatic and contrasting population concerns:

Japan

By the turn of this century, Japan’s population is expected to be half of what it was in 2017. The country will lose 20.7 million people between 2020 and 2050. While in 2017 the population was at its peak at 126.5 million, it will fall to 105.8 million in 2050, a 16.3 percent decline.

Japan’s population has been declining since 2011 due to a low fertility rate (1.42 births per woman) and an aging populace. It holds the record for the world’s oldest population as well. 

The combined factors have put a strain on the country’s workforce since fewer young people are available to fill job positions.

Typically, Japan has been wary of immigrants but in an attempt to mitigate the concerns, it has eased up on its rules in recent years.

Ukraine

While Ukraine’s population was projected to witness a 19.5 percent decline, from 43.7 million in 2020 to 35.2 million in 2050, the war with Russia has worsened matters. 

According to the United Nations, almost 3,000 civilians have been killed or injured, 6.5 million are internally displaced and 4 million have been forced to flee to neighbouring countries.

This could have a long-lasting and permanent impact on the country’s population, which was already struggling with high emigration rates coupled with high death rates and fewer births.

China

Today, China accounts for more than a sixth of the world's population but the world’s most populated country is expected to shrink. 

In 1979, China famously launched its one-child policy to slow down population growth as economic concerns mounted. The controversial move, however, led to a dramatic decline in the birth rate, forcing the country to scrap the policy in 2016.

According to the latest figures from China's National Bureau of Statistics, its population grew from 1.41212 billion to just 1.41260 billion in 2021, a record low increase of just 480,000, a fraction of the annual growth of eight million or so common a decade ago.

China introduced a three-child policy, backed by tax and other incentives last year to increase its birth rate.

India

With more than 1.4 billion people, India represents 18 percent of the world’s population. According to the UN, India is projected to overtake China as the world’s most populous country by 2027.

While population growth continues to remain an enormous concern in India, the country’s total fertility rate (TFR) has fallen below the replacement rate for the first time. The birth rate stands at about 2.20 (2019), down from 5.91 in 1960.

Nigeria

Nigeria and other sub-Saharan African countries are resisting the global trend of population decline. According to the UN, more than half of global population growth between now and 2050 is expected to occur in Africa. The sub-Saharan continent has the highest rate of population growth among major areas and the population is expected to double in 30 years.

A Lancet study reveals that Nigeria will become the world's second-most populous country, with 791 million people in 2100 and see big differences in GDP.

However, the strain on infrastructure and social structures due to rapid population expansion remains a concern for the Nigerian government.

The US

According to the US Census Bureau, despite slowing population growth, particularly after 2030, the country’s population is still expected to grow by 79 million people by 2060, crossing the 400-million threshold in 2058.

The year 2020, marked by the advent of the COVID-19 pandemic, saw the largest one-year dip in births in more than a quarter-century. The preliminary 2021 figure, while an improvement from 2020, is still lower than 2019’s 3.75 million births, according to Population Reference Bureau.

Moreover, America is graying. The nation’s 65-and-older population is projected to nearly double in the coming decades, from 49 million in 2016 to 95 million people in 2060.

However, with government policies and the right resources in place, the birth rate in the country can be brought back on its track.

(With inputs from PTI)