Thousands of lives, billions of dollars, untold misery: The cost of 1,000 days of Russia-Ukraine war

File: Emergency workers and soldiers push a damaged cars after a Russian missile hit a supermarket in Kostiantynivka, Donetsk region (AP Photo)

As the war between Russia and Ukraine reaches its 1,000th day on November 19, 2024, the scale of human loss and geopolitical upheaval continues to shock the world. What started as a full-scale invasion by Russia on February 24, 2022 has evolved into Europe’s deadliest conflict since World War II, reshaping not just the future of Ukraine and Russia, but the entire international order.

The Human Cost of War

According to a report by The Wall Street Journal, which cited intelligence sources, nearly one million lives—both Ukrainian and Russian—have been lost or affected since the conflict began.

The bulk of these casualties are soldiers, but the toll on Ukrainian civilians is also harrowing, with a reported surge in deaths outpacing births by a grim factor of three in the first half of 2024.

According to the United Nations, at least 11,743 people have lost their lives, with over 24,600 more injured as of August 2024.

Among the casualties, 589 children have been reported dead, though experts caution that these numbers are likely underreported, especially in regions under Russian control.

Over 6 million Ukrainians are living as refugees abroad, while nearly 4 million are displaced within their own country. The nation’s population has shrunk by 10 million — a quarter of its pre-war total — a demographic crisis that will have lasting consequences.

Battlefield of Attrition

According to a report by The New York Times, citing independent researchers, by November 2024, around 78,000 Russian soldiers have been confirmed dead, based on public records such as obituaries and cemetery reports. For Ukraine, the toll stands at about 65,000 soldiers, though these numbers likely do not capture the full extent of the losses.

While soldiers make up the majority of the dead, the war's impact on both countries' military capabilities is also devastating. Russia’s losses, in particular, have been staggering. At times, more than 1,000 Russian soldiers have died in a single day during the most intense phases of the conflict.

Putin’s Nuclear Brinkmanship

As the war stretches on, tensions rise, and so does the rhetoric. On November 19, 2024, Russian President Vladimir Putin signed a revised nuclear doctrine, warning that any conventional attack on Russia, backed by a nuclear power, would be considered a joint attack on the Russian Federation.

This comes few weeks after President Joe Biden authorised the use of US missiles against targets deeper inside Russia, aiming to limit Russia’s ability to continue its strikes on Ukraine. While this move is seen as a significant policy change, military experts caution that it may not be enough to alter the war's course.

The 'Unspoken' Toll on Russia

While Russia has been notoriously secretive about its military losses, investigative journalists and independent researchers have found ways to piece together a more accurate picture of the death toll.

Mediazona, an independent Russian news outlet, along with the BBC Russian Service, has compiled a comprehensive database of confirmed Russian combat deaths, estimating that at least 78,000 Russian soldiers have been killed in action. These numbers, however, do not account for the Ukrainian separatists and foreign fighters fighting for Russia, which could push the toll even higher.

Strain on Russia’s Forces

One of the critical questions that looms over the war is Russia’s ability to replace its fallen soldiers. Despite the growing casualties, Russia has yet to demonstrate any clear capacity to replenish its ranks at a sustainable rate. The Kremlin has turned to countries like North Korea to supplement its military personnel, raising concerns about the long-term sustainability of its military campaign.

The arrival of North Korean troops in Russia is seen as a sign of desperation, but it also highlights the manpower shortage that Russia faces. As casualties mount, the question of whether Russia can continue to fight at this intensity without sacrificing its long-term military strength remains unanswered.

Ukraine’s Spirited Defense

In contrast to Russia’s military woes, Ukraine has used the war as an impetus to transform its defense industry. Once a relic of the Soviet era, Ukraine’s defense sector has rapidly modernised, producing cutting-edge military technologies such as drones, anti-drone systems, and unmanned ground vehicles. Over 800 companies in Ukraine are now engaged in the defense sector, making everything from drones to sophisticated jamming devices.

Ukrainian forces have been able to use these innovations to counter Russia’s overwhelming use of drones, which has made it difficult for Ukrainian troops to move freely or build fortifications. Ukraine is expected to produce over 1.5 million drones in 2024 alone, many of which are small, low-cost vehicles that can be deployed for surveillance and strikes.

The Economic Toll

While Ukraine’s defense industry has shown impressive growth, the war has taken an enormous toll on its economy. Ukraine’s defense production capacity has soared from $1 billion in 2022 to an expected $20 billion in 2024. However, only half of this capacity is currently being utilised, due to financial constraints.

As the world marks 1,000 days of the Russia-Ukraine war, the end of the conflict remains nowhere in sight. The war has reshaped the global order, with both countries suffering catastrophic losses. But as Ukraine continues to innovate and garner international support, the tide may turn. Russia’s ability to sustain the war will depend on whether it can replenish its military losses, both in terms of personnel and equipment.