The Munich Security Conference will have a packed agenda

The Munich Security Conference (MSC) is widely regarded as a prominent forum for discussing security-related issues affecting the world.

Senior leaders and top diplomats of leading countries are scheduled to gather in Munich this weekend for an important security dialogue as the Ukraine war moves into its second year amid concerns that Russia might intensify its offensive as the winter snow thaws.

But a major focus of discussion at the security conference will also be the growing divide between “competing world orders” that the Ukraine war and the Sino-American rivalry seem to have brought to the fore.

The Munich Security Conference (MSC) is widely regarded as a prominent forum for discussing security-related issues affecting the world.

US Vice President Kamala Harris, senior Chinese diplomat Wang Yi, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, French President Emmanuel Macron and the NATO chief Jens Stoltenberg are among those expected at the three-day annual gathering.

Indian deputy NSA Vikram Misri will represent the country at the MSC.

One reason for not sending a senior leader to Munich may be because Chancellor Scholz is scheduled to visit Delhi soon after the MSC to hold talks with Prime Minister Narendra Modi and other senior members of the Indian government on regional, global and bilateral issues of mutual interest and concerns.

Moreover, Indian NSA Ajit Doval was also recently in Washington and Moscow engaging with the leadership of the two countries on bilateral and global issues.

Focus on Ukraine and China

The MSC is scheduled for February 17 to 19 in the Bavarian city. The primary focus will be on the Ukraine war and how to deal with the challenge posed by Russia by its invasion of the neighbouring country.

“The conference is faced with the question of how the ‘rules-based international order’ can be respected,” said MSC chairman Christoph Heusgen.

But the conference is also being held at a time of rising tension in Sino-American relations, which has sharpened even further after the recent spy-balloon episode as both countries have accused each other of violation of air space and espionage.

How the US-China tussle has impacted countries in the Indo-Pacific region and beyond, especially at a time when they have been struggling to put their economies back on track after two years of the Covid-19 pandemic and the ongoing Ukraine war, will also be a major focus of discussion in Munich.

Heusgen pointed out the focus of the dialogue will be on whether “in future there will be an order where the strength of law dominates, or there will be an order in which the law of the strongest prevails.”

He added that the question of “how to deal with people … political leaders who do not respect the rule of law,” will be on the agenda.

War anniversary

Last year, soon after the Munich Security Conference, Russia had sent tanks into Ukraine. Friday’s conference is being held barely a week before the war’s first anniversary.

But despite the United States-led western alliance's attempt to isolate Russia, most nations have refused to either condemn or sanction Moscow even though most poor and developing countries have suffered the worst disruptions in energy and food supplies due to the war.

The MSC, which began in 1963 with the mission to “contribute to the peaceful resolution of conflicts,” took a beating with Russia’s decision to go to war with Ukraine.

The US and the western countries saw it as a “breach of civilization” committed by Russian President Vladimir Putin.

Predictably, the MSC will be dominated by the Ukraine war.

The Russian invasion and the stout defense put up by the Ukrainian army has been described by America as a fight between “autocracy and democracy.”

But despite the US attempt to project the ongoing war as such, several democracies, most prominently India, the world’s largest democracy, refused to join the anti-Russia campaign launched by Washington and other western countries.

In a report released on Monday, Heusgen said, “The Russian war against Ukraine is just the most brazen attack on the rules-based order.”

The report added that “revisionist actors are trying to undermine the status quo and change the international order in many different ways.”

Russia and China: Seeking a new world order

That is a reference to not only Russia but also China as both have been involved over the past years in changing the existing US-dominated world order, which has been in place since the end of the Second World War.

Until recently, China had been happy to concentrate on developing its economic muscle in a world assured of stability by the US security umbrella.

But as the US began to curtail its economic growth by launching a trade war against Chinese goods dominating the US market and elsewhere, Beijing started to challenge America’s influence in maintaining the existing global order.

Putin, who decided to invade Ukraine after facing an “existential threat” posed by NATO’s decision to include Kyiv as a future member of the alliance, has been trying to re-establish Russia’s sphere of influence in Europe.

However, one of the most interesting findings of the MSC report is that despite the US and the European countries attempting to convince others to join their effort to isolate Russia, most have either continued to support Moscow or remained neutral.

According to data crunched by The Economist, as rich countries and developed economies condemned Russia’s action, poor and developing countries, which are also the most populous, have been neutral or Russia-leaning.

Heusgen argued in his report that the resentment felt by countries in Africa, Latin America, and Asia towards the international order needed to be addressed.

Otherwise, he cautioned, “We will struggle to win the fence-sitters as allies in the defense of key rules and principles.”