In December 2013, the then influential chief minister of Pakistan’s Punjab province, Shehbaz Sharif, came calling on Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh and visited the historic Masjid-e Jehan Numa, or Jama Masjid, in Delhi's walled city.
Sharif spoke of peace, immediate cessation of hostilities across the Line of Control and talks between the director generals of military operations (DGMOs) of India and Pakistan.
Well, Shehbaz Sharif - the younger of the two Sharif brothers - the most influential politicians in Pakistani Punjab, has a chance to walk the talk after being sworn in as the country’s new prime minister on April 11.
The two Sharif brothers have for long backed peace with India, but have invariably been thwarted by Pakistan’s all-powerful military.
In a country where no prime minister has served a full term, the odds are stacked against the younger Sharif brother, who is reported to be a maverick.
The new leader has promised his country a return to a healthier economy and improved relations with the US, Pakistan’s traditional supporter, and India, its conventional enemy.
In his first speech, the new prime minister announced an increase in minimum wages and said he intended to redesign Pakistan as “destination paradise.”
That is easier said than done. Sharif has inherited an economy rattled by a yawning current account deficit and soaring inflation. Revenue can only be accrued through taxation and increased investment, particularly in the export sector.
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Dealing with India could be even more daunting. Sharif said his government wanted good relations with India, but added that peace would not be possible without the resolution of the “Kashmir issue”.
That the Pakistan military still calls the shots as far as the India policy goes was evident in the new prime minister’s inaugural speech in the National Assembly soon after his election.
Sharif touched on the Indian abrogation of Article 370 on Kashmir, and said Pakistan will offer “diplomatic and moral support” to “Kashmiri brothers and sisters” and bring up the matter at each global forum.
The two tweets by the rival prime ministers showed their countries had stuck to their formal positions. Prime Minister Narendra Modi wrote: “Congratulations to H. E. Mian Muhammad Shehbaz Sharif on his election as the Prime Minister of Pakistan. India desires peace and stability in a region free of terror, so that we can focus on our development challenges and ensure the well-being and prosperity of our people.”
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Sharif’s response, which came a day later, was equally categorical. ``Thank you Premier Narendra Modi for felicitations. Pakistan desires peaceful & cooperative ties with India. Peaceful settlement of outstanding disputes including Jammu & Kashmir is indispensable. Pakistan's sacrifices in fighting terrorism are well-known…’’
Moneycontrol spoke to four renowned experts on Pakistan. Nearly all believe it is too early to arrive at any conclusion, given the volatile nature of the bilateral relations between the two countries in the last seven decades – with China as the new add-on.
Shebaz Sharif is close to the army while brother Nawaz is not: G Parthasarathy, veteran diplomat, former Indian High to Commissioner to Pakistan
Do you see any change in India-Pakistan ties with a new prime minister?
Not in a hurry. Let us wait and see.
What is the difference between the brothers Shehbaz and Nawaz, in your view?
Shehbaz is close to the Pakistani Army while Nawaz Sharif is not. That is the crucial difference between the two brothers.
But Shehbaz Sharif came to India during the last year of the Manmohan Singh government, offering prayers at Delhi’s Jama Masjid. Modi himself went to Pakistan on a surprise visit to meet his elder brother Nawaz Sharif on a family occasion. There does appear to be a political connection there.
Sure. The Sharif brothers have strong connections with the Indian side of Punjab, but as I said, let us wait and watch.
India and Pakistan are not top priority for each other at the moment: Rajiv Bhatia, Former Indian Ambassador, Distinguished Fellow, Foreign Policy Studies Programme, Gateway House
What do you make of the new regime change in Pakistan? Does it suggest any changes, or will it be business as usual?
As an observer, we should be patient and realistic. The situation in Pakistan is evolving. If we could even upgrade diplomatic ties with Pakistan, i.e, both countries put high commissioners in place in both New Delhi and Islamabad, it should be regarded as a big thing.
Could there be a change in thinking in Pakistan with army chief Gen Qamar Bajwa expressing his desire for peace with India, an economic powerhouse next door, with which the rest of the world wants to trade?
Gen Bajwa has made certain statements, but it is important to remember that his leadership within the Pakistan army is not unchallenged, as experts have pointed out. Then there is also his equation with the new prime minister to reckon with. So, without getting too excited, as some in the media have been, the political situation in Pakistan is fluid and it would be wise to give it some time.
It is important to remember that India and Pakistan are not top priority for each other. Pakistan is more involved with China and Afghanistan and India has her own priorities. So let diplomatic and back channels begin their work and then see how things shape up.
Shebaz is temporary; Imran will bounce back in fresh elections soon: Talmiz Ahmed, former Indian Ambassador to Saudi Arabia; Oman, and the UAE
What do you make of the new regime change in Pakistan?
It finally looks that the Sharif brothers and the Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP) have got their act together and the Pakistan Army got tired of Imran Khan and decided to get rid of him. The Pakistan army chief, General Qamar Javed Bajwa, displayed his clout in getting his ISI (Inter-Services Intelligence) candidate, Lt Gen Nadeem Anjum, appointed as head of Pakistan’s spy agency while ostensibly deferring to the process demands made by prime minister Imran Khan.
How do you see this new Shehbaz Sharif dispensation vis a vis India?
Frankly, I don’t see Shehbaz lasting too long. I foresee another election before long and Imran Khan will come back with a bang. He had to go because the Pakistani Army got a little panicky with his populist postures. Then Imran’s attack on the US. Let us remember one thing: there are no US-Pakistan relations – there are only the Pentagon-ISI relations, which go back a long way and are very strong. That cannot be rattled.
The Sharifs have long been businessmen, who have favoured good economic ties with India. With Modi going to Pakistan to visit Nawaz Sharif in 2015, is this the chance to improve relations?
It is all very confusing here. Our diplomacy, instead of tackling rivals and adversaries, is busy dealing with friends. That’s the easier end of diplomacy. We have no problem with the Taliban, as it is made out to be. In Narendra Modi’s first premiership, he dealt with South Asian leaders as a diplomat. In his second tenure, it is more inward looking, about Hindutva. In his first regime, his dalliances with Middle East kingdoms, which are totalitarian regimes, were conducted under one scheme of things, under the premise that they are Muslim countries while the so-called Muslim countries were more interested in doing business. Now the scene is totally different.
There is better chemistry with the new dispensation: AS Dulat, former RAW chief
With a regime change in Islamabad, do you see a thaw in relations between two estranged neighbours?
It is too early to say, but I can suggest that the chemistry is better with the new dispensation.
Gen Bajwa has always talked of peace with India and improving bilateral ties. There is no harm in admitting that Imran-Bajwa was a good team. The fact that they wanted to improve ties with India can be judged from the fact that apart from the Balakot strike, there were no major incidents between the two countries. And even there, the decision to return the captured Indian Air Force pilot, Abhinandan, was a signal that peace was up for discussion, if all parties agreed.
What of the new dispensation in Pakistan?
I would say it is old wine in a new bottle. The Sharif brothers are well known to India so let’s hope and wait for the best. Having said that, I would not rejoice over the defeat of Imran Khan, as he was beset with his own problems. As far as I can see, he was favourably disposed towards India, as was the Pakistani army chief.
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