Will Trump 2.0 help study abroad dreams of Indian students come true?

Trump's win may affect Indian students' study abroad plans.

Trumpian policies had left Indian students in the US or those planning to study in American institutes at a difficult juncture when he was at the White House in the first term. The return of Donald Trump as the US president has left experts divided over the fate of the study abroad plans of Indian students.

Republican Donald Trump secured a second term in the Oval Office on November 6, defeating his Democrat rival Kamala Harris, the Indian-origin vice-president of the outgoing Joe Biden administration.

Although the protectionist policies of the first Trump government gave a tough time to Indian students, this time there are hopes of a better day in a relaxed policy regime. Trump has loosened his immigration policies by offering automatic green cards to foreign students graduating from US colleges, especially those enrolled in STEM (science, technology, engineering, and mathematics) fields. "This can make it easier for Indian students to find jobs in the US," said Gaurav Batra, founder and chief executive of Infinite Group, which offers study abroad solutions.

"Trump sounded more positive and even showed support for international students in his election campaign," pointed out Piyush Kumar, regional director for South Asia, Canada and Latin America (LATAM) at IDP Education. "The sentiment is pro-Indian and international students, which is a good sign for Indian students who form the largest cohort of international students on US soil."

With President Trump’s election, there is optimism about new opportunities and favorable changes that may benefit international students, including those from India, said Ankur Agarwal, Director- South Asia and Africa, AECC, a study abroad consultant.

The American pie  

Indians represent the second highest number of students coming to the US for education, representing 28 percent of the total student intake from abroad, noted Atul Thakkar, director of investment banking at Anand Rathi Advisors. "In the calendar year 2023, 1.3 million Indian students went to study in a foreign country of which 400,000 travelled to the US. There has been a steady increase in the number of students entering the US over the past year with a high bounce back from the pandemic," he said.

The US remains the top destination for Indian students, followed by Canada, the UAE, Australia, Saudi Arabia and the UK.

The US issued the highest number of student visas in 2023, a significant increase from previous years, Thakkar said. "With over 4,000 educational institutions offering primarily four-year degree courses, the US presents a vast array of opportunities for students. It has been actively encouraging international students in recent years, organising events in India to attract students."

India now has more overseas students enrolled in the US than China has, and this figure has been rising steadily, said Batra. "Indian students continue to have a strong desire for US education due to the nation's stellar reputation for high-quality education and employment prospects," he said, noting that 1,40,000 F1 student visas were handled by the US embassy and consulates in India in 2023.

The visa wait time has too has reduced drastically, said Kumar. "Recently, the US embassy in India announced an additional 250,000 visa appointments and opened a processing centre to meet the growing demand from Indian tourists, skilled workers and students. In 2023, the US announced plans to open new consulates in Bangalore and Ahmedabad, while Hyderabad has the biggest US consulate in South Asia," he added.

Difficult now, uncertain later

The present-day situation for Indian students looks difficult because of the drawn-out visa application procedure and heightened monitoring despite visa wait-time dropping from 1,000 days to 250 days last year, Batra said, who added that Indian students are still frustrated.

"The current state of student visas is marked by a convoluted application process. Despite shorter wait periods, Indian students have to wait a long time to get appointments for visas. The procedure involves a lot of paperwork. The ability of Indian students to obtain student visas may be impacted by changes made by the incoming president's administration to expedite the procedure or enforce more stringent rules," Batra said.

Thakkar noted that while Trump made statements supporting international students, like promising automatic green cards for foreign graduates of US colleges, his campaign later clarified that it would only apply to "thoroughly vetted" graduates which means they will look at quality talent.

"The long-term appeal of US higher education is likely to persist. Students may need to be more strategic in their planning and stay informed about potential policy changes that could affect their studies and post-graduation opportunities. Trump's current outlook towards high-skilled immigrants is positive compared to the previous term," he said.

It is expected that Indians and other students graduating from top-tier colleges will have an easier path for citizenship since the US administration is expected to be focused on retaining talent to keep skilled graduates in the country, Thakkar said, adding that Trump has promised "the most aggressive vetting process in the US history" to ensure only "the most skilled graduates who can make significant contributions to America" can remain after completing their studies.

Rough ride in Trump 1.0

During his previous term, a few of Trump administration initiatives had created uncertainty amid Indian students, Batra said, citing the example of the Optional Practical Training (OPT) program, which permits foreign students to work in the US following their studies, which was proposed to be discontinued by the former Trump administration. "The idea had caused uncertainty among Indian students, even if it was revoked later."

Thakkar said that the previous Trump administration had increased scrutiny on F-1 student visas, making the application process more rigorous. There were also increased H-1B visa denials during Trump's previous term. "The Trump administration tightened eligibility criteria for H-1B visas, which many Indian students rely on for post-graduation employment. H-1B visa denial rates increased from 6 percent in 2015 to 24 percent in 2018 due to his protectionist policies," Thakkar said.