Coronavirus pandemic | Strict social distancing may reduce peak numbers by 89%: ICMR study

A study conducted by the Indian Council of Medical Research (ICMR) has deduced that social distancing will help reduce the peak number of novel coronavirus patients by as much as 89 percent.

The study - based on mathematical modelling - has further established that strict social distancing and home quarantine can additionally bring down the number of expected cases by 62 percent, thereby flattening the curve and aiding intervention techniques.

The study titled ‘Prudent public health intervention strategies to control the coronavirus disease-2019 transmission in India: A mathematical model-based approach’ was conducted in February. It further suggests the entry point screening of travellers can also help delay community transmission of the deadly pathogen by up to 21 days.

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That said, community preparedness and robust public health system would continue to be crucial in containing the mass spread of the novel coronavirus, a Times of India report stated while quoting the study.

The ICMR research was, however, based on the data available initially in February and a basic understanding of how the virus can spread. Notably, such predictions are not certain or absolute, but they do help in showing a way as to how the impact of such a crisis can be toned down.

Commenting on the study, Dr RR Gangakhedkar, Head of Epidemiology, ICMR, reiterated that the study was conducted a month ago when the numbers were not as high or alarming. The focus of the modelling was primarily how the outbreak of the novel coronavirus can be controlled and contained in India. The doctor added: “Lockdown and thermal screening works is what our study shows.”