Us Recession

US faces twin pressures as recession odds climb and fuel costs rise

According to data from Polymarket, the probability of the US entering a recession in 2026 has climbed to 36%

RBI has started diversifying US treasury holding and purchasing gold, says FM Nirmala Sitharaman

“I don’t want divulge in to how they are diverting, but I think the RBI has taken very considered decision and they have also done by purchasing gold,” FM Sitharaman added.

Resilient US economy buys Fed time amid tariff turbulence

India gains ground as Fed maintains rates and investors seek stability beyond the West

Chris Wood's Greed and Fear: US economy weakening, Trump does 'not have the cards' in China tariff war

Greed and Fear said its base case is that a 'major decline' in the US dollar has begun, over and above the recent pullback, which the note said has been a 'correction of an overvaluation'.

Is the Gold Rush here to stay?

Trend reversals in gold prices are not uncommon but only when the myriad uncertainties are behind, and that is anybody’s guess

"Own goal" - Howard Marks compares Trump's tariffs to Brexit misstep in latest memo

Marks noted that even if tariffs succeed in bringing manufacturing back to the US, the country currently lacks the infrastructure

Days before US election, Americans more upbeat about economy, stock market, shows Consumer Confidence Index

The proportion of consumers anticipating a recession over the next 12 months too has dropped to its lowest since 2022, as also the percentage of consumers believing the economy was already in recession.

Goldman Sachs lowers probability of a US recession to 20 percent in latest note

If the August jobs report “looks reasonably good, we would probably cut our recession probability back to 15%, where it stood for almost a year,” Goldman Sachs economists led by Jan Hatzius said in a note on Saturday.

Don't see big crash despite selective exuberance, take some profits in small caps: Devina Mehra

Mehra feels there are no significant risks to India from the global risks like the Yen carry trade, a possible US recession. Yet, the abundance of domestic liquidity can be no cover for faltering fundamentals

Nasdaq, S&P 500 fall 3% each amid US recession fears, Apple drop

All three major indexes registered their biggest three-day percentage declines since June 2022, and the Nasdaq and S&P 500 closed at their lowest levels since early May.

How major economies reacted to the global market selloff

The global market sell-off was especially severe in Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan, with each of these equity markets witnessing record single-day declines.

Oil prices fall as US recession fears spark broader selloff

Share markets also tumbled across Asia as U.S. recession fears sent investors rushing from risk assets while wagering that rapid rate cuts will be needed to drive economic growth

Risk of a US recession real, say experts, second half of 2024 unlikely to be as smooth

The Yen-funded carry trades were popular in emerging markets amid low volatility as investors bet Japanese rates would remain low for longer. But BoJ has raised rates for a second time at its latest meeting, signalling it may not be done yet.

Yardeni Research doesn't see recession clouds, despite spike in US jobless claims

The sell-side consultancy headed by noted economist and investment strategist Ed Yardeni, believes that the US Fed will take a more dovish stand and give stocks and bonds a boost

MC Explains: At 542 days, US 10-yr/ 3-month yield-curve inverted for the longest time ever. What does it mean?

This metic has been long been considered an unerring signal of an impending recession, but now there are differing views

Fed policy: Base case is for rate cuts, but the question is when

While the case for soft landing gets stronger, Fed is in no hurry to cut rates