During the October-March period, inflation is likely to remain above 7 percent, Pranjul Bhandari said. By March, it could fall closer to 6.5 percent, and then towards 5.75 percent in April-June 2023, she added
RBI may slow down the pace of its monetary tightening by the end of the year as economic growth will lose momentum with waning demand, according to HSBC Holdings Plc.
All eyes on RBI Governor Urjit Patel as the RBI will announce its bi-monthly policy later today. Most participants in the latest CNBC-TV18 poll expect the central bank to cut the repo rate by 25 basis points.
According to global financial services major HSBC, the economic growth in October-December, the first following the demonetisation, surprised on the upside but the details are "sobering".
The Reserve Bank is expected to hold rates steady over the "foreseeable future", unless inflation and growth undershoot targets sharply, says an HSBC report.
The uptick in the growth numbers would be largely driven by the remonetisation process which is expected by April end as this in turn would boost the consumption levels in the country.
Having posted growth of above 7 percent for six consecutive quarters, India's gross domestic product is expected to have expanded just 6.5 percent in the October-December quarter - the weakest in nearly three years.
In a comprehensive report on Asia's outlook for the year, HSBC noted India could grow at an annual rate of 7.1 percent for fiscal 2018 and 7.6 percent for fiscal 2019, shrugging off any lasting effects from its program to remove 500 and 1,000 rupee bank notes from the financial system in November, labelled demonetization.
While a 25 basis points interest rate cut is already factored, falling food prices could prompt the Reserve Bank of India to cut rates a second time by 25 basis points, feels Pranjul Bhandari, Chief India Economist at HSBC.
Over the short-term, money that is coming in will push up liquidity and deposits for banks without any deployment avenues, said Ananth Narayan, Head – Financial Markets at Standard Chartered Bank.
Decoding Raghuram Rajan‘s commentary, Deutsche Bank Chief Economist (Asia, Global Markets Research) Taimur Baig said room for another rate cut is zero as there is an upside in inflation outlook.
Pranjul Bhandari, Chief India Economist, HSBC, says inflation could be much higher—almost 5.5 percent— than the 4.5-5 percent forecast in the survey.
Underweight on India, the global brokerage firm today said in a report that despite the recent sell-off in Indian equities, there remains a mismatch between expectations and reality which has not been "fully priced in".
Growth in India‘s eight core sectors came at 0.9 percent compared to a decline of 1.3 percent in November. The growth was aided by reasonably good performance of coal, cement and fertilisers sectors.
Expressing dissatisfaction with the new way of GDP computation, its country economists, led by Pranjul Bhandari, estimated that the economy would clock a 7.4 percent growth in FY16, and it would remain stable at the same level in FY17 as well.
The government has "in principle" accepted OROP - a demand by India's defence personnel that uniform pension should be paid to armed force retirees with the same rank and same length of service.
HSBC'S chief India economist Pranjul Bhandari also says upfront spending by the government might lose steam in the latter part of the year
The Reserve Bank (RBI) is likely to go for a 25 basis points rate cut in September as price pressures have fallen "notably and far more than expected", says an HSBC report.
A Prasanna, chief economist at I-Sec PD, says the RBI had been very clear the last time that it is frontloading the rate action.
While India Meteorological Department has predicted a deficient monsoon with July recording a slowdown of 33 percent, the relatively new weatherman Skymet has given a contrarion forecast of normal rains.
The global financial services major has cautioned that El Nino risks are not to be underestimated, and going by the updates from across the world, El Nino conditions are likely to last longer and possibly intensify into the second half of this year.
Bhandari expects agriculture growth this year to be below 1 percent this year because of erratic rainfall.
If the government does not introduce structural reforms to check spiraling food prices, we can forget rate cuts for the next couple of quarters, warns Pranjul Bhandari, Chief India Economist, HSBC Securities.
Auctioning coal mines to the private sector to restart electricity projects, pressing ahead with necessary land acquisition for road building or easing bureaucratic hurdles in the attainment of licences will help Indian exporters gain competitiveness.
According to global financial services firm Morgan Stanley, "The Budget does not have any measures that would disturb the current entrenched disinflation trend".