Experts say the RBI's extension of the deadline to meet the derivatives norms is only part of the story. The truth is that no one wants to take fresh positions at this time.
The biggest resistance for the Nifty is at 18000 levels where 94 lakh call options are written. On the lower side, 17500 offers some support though only around 40 lakh puts are standing to protect that level. With the market at 17662, any adverse news in the budget can take this level away.
The current fall in the market was seen in the FII derivative data since mid- February when they started unwinding their long position
When OIPCR goes far beyond more than one, the mood turns from Bullish to Extremely Bullish. Similarly, if OIPCR is closer to 0 than 1 the situation indicates extremely bearish mood.
Rollover in Nifty stood at 78.93 percent, which is higher than its quarterly average of 69.70 percent.
Cash continues to be king
Index rollovers were also on the lowest side (81%), which shows traders were not comfortable when the market was hitting the levels of 9900 on the day of expiry.
As trade volumes grow rapidly coupled with the entry of tech-savvy Gen-Z traders, algo trading will grow many folds particularly in developing markets like India.
Union Budget during the weekend might be a reason behind low rollover and fresh positions are likely to build post-event.
The volatility that we are talking about is a forward-looking figure because we are valuing an option to exercise or let go of a transaction on a future date.
The weekly increment of OI in the index was over 4 percent. On the other hand, Bank Nifty futures had long additions of almost 9 percent and an equal amount of short unwinding
Put options open interest is much higher than those on the call side suggesting a downward bias in the market.
The outcome of State election results might lead to uncertainty cropping up in the next 10 sessions which could result in the rise in open interest.
F&O Cues: Nifty 10600 Call added 16.8 lakh shares in Open Interest while Nifty 10500 Put shed 8.5 lakh shares in OI.
Technically speaking short-term traders can retain positive bias as long as Nifty50 sustains above 10,498 levels on closing basis breach of which may again drag it down towards 10,276 levels, Mazhar Mohammad, Chief Strategist – Technical Research & Trading Advisory, Chartviewindia.in said.
Maximum put OI of 60.7 lakh contracts was seen at strike price 10,500, which will act as a crucial base for February series.
The Nifty Futures open| interest (OI) tends to build up prior to the Budget and declines once the event is out of the way. Given that the derivative indicators like the Basis, OI PCR and IV tend to mirror the movements in the Nifty rather than be impacted by the Budget event.
Nifty 10250 Put added 3.7 lakh shares in Open Interest while Nifty 10200 Put added 3.2 lakh shares in OI.
F&O cues: Nifty 9800 Put added 7.7 lakh shares in Open Interest and Nifty 10100 Call Adds 2.15 lakh shares in OI.
F&O cues: Nifty 10000 Call added 9.6 lakh shares in Open Interest and Nifty 9900 Call added 6.8 lakh shares in OI.
F&O cues: Nifty 9800 Put added 11.5 lakh shares in Open Interest and Nifty 9900 Put added 10.1 lakh shares in OI.
F&O cues: Nifty 9800 Put added 6.45 lakh shares in Open Interest and Nifty 9600 Put added 4.7 lakh shares in OI.
F&O cues: Nifty 9500 Put added 10.9 lakh shares in Open Interest and Nifty Nifty 9700 Put added 8.5 lakh shares in OI.
F&O cues: Nifty 10500 Call added 13.1 lakh shares in Open Interest and Nifty 10400 Call added 10.6 lakh shares in OI.
F&O cues: Nifty 10000 Call added 8.8 lakh shares in Open Interest and Nifty 9900 Put added 3.88 lakh shares in OI.