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“In the last quarter, the swaps market is pricing a cut in India, which I find very hard to believe,” said Jayesh Mehta, India country treasurer at the US bank said in an interview last week. “Our domestic demand is good, backed up by equally good local growth.”
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Soumya Kanti Ghosh, Chief Economic Advisor at SBI is happy with the CPI numbers, and is confident that the inflation numbers will remain below 4 percent till the end of FY17. But he warns that inflation may start rising soon after.
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Asian currencies, including India, have been depreciating in last 1-2 years. As long as the dollar strengthens, weakness in emerging markets currency will continue, Jayesh Mehta, MD & Country Treasurer of Bank of America.
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Demonetisation has speeded up process of yields heading to below 6 percent levels, says Jayesh Mehta, BofA ML.
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Watch the interview of Jayesh Mehta, MD, BofAML with Manisha Gupta on CNBC-TV18, in which he shared his reading and outlook on currency market.
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The Reserve Bank of India on Tuesday released the minutes of the first monetary policy committee (MPC) meet.
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The three-year stint of the outgoing Reserve Bank chief is largely viewed by economists as positive as growth picked up, reserves increased, currency stabilised, inflation cooled and a number of reforms were undertaken during his watch.
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Regarding bond yields falling after the rate cut news, he says it was nothing but profit-booking, says Jayesh Mehta, MD & Country Treasurer, Bank of America
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With only a few days to go for RBI's credit policy meet, it is anybody's guess as to what would be the rate cut. But bankers and bond dealers are sure of one thing: banks should have more liquidity.
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Jahangir Aziz, Asia economic research, JPMorgan, says it is very hard to see a monetary policy committee where the governor doesn't have a veto power, but is responsible for monitoring inflation.
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Jayesh Mehta, Managing Director & Country Treasurer, Bank of America says setting up Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) limit in rupee terms will aid rebalancing of rupee against the dollar which will boost sentiment in the bond market.
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Both equities and money market have seen a bit of sell-off over the past few days, however, the bond market has relatively been stable. Jayesh Mehta of Bank of America feels the outlook remains constructive going ahead.
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In an interview to CNBC-TV18, Jayesh Mehta, MD and Country Treasurer of Bank of America spoke about the bond as well as the rupee market.
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In an interview to CNBC-Tv18, Jayesh Mehta of Bank of America says he expects three more rate cuts from the RBI going into new fiscal and sees March inflation at 5.5 percent.
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The Bank of America country head said the January 15 policy statement of RBI mentions looking at the other macro factors including supply side and the fiscal numbers. So taking Coal India OFS into account, there is a probability of a 25 basis point cut tomorrow.
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The rupee hit a multi-month low today, sliding to 62.25 against the dollar as Asian currencies tumble across the board on a region-wide fall in stock markets.
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Jayesh Mehta, MD & Country Treasurer, Bank of America, said though he is not sure whether the ratings can be upgraded from the current BBB-, but feels the outlook can definitely change to positive.
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The RBI's decision to permit banks to sell 7-year bonds on which they don‘t have to keep reserves could well create a new and robust market for them.
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BofA's Jayesh Mehta does not see the Indian currency falling below 60/USD as foreign investors will continue pouring money in the market until elections which will continue strengthening the rupee
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Jayesh Mehta, Managing Director & Country Treasurer, Bank of America is of the view that this interim Budget would be a short-term event because the there is a larger event around April.
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The Urjit Patel-headed committee which was entrusted with the task of drawing the framework for policymaking, recommended that the central bank should go for taming consumer price inflation at 4 percent. Effective implementation of the proposal, which Mehta says is going to be a tough job, is expected to bring down interest rate considerably.
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Jayesh Mehta of Bank of America and Abhay Laijawala of Deutsche Bank shared their outlook on investments in India.
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Sajjid Z Chinoy, Asia Economics, JPMorgan says the main disinflationary force has been the cooling of vegetable prices. Retail vegetable prices have corrected by more than 30 percent and the first 10 days of January has already seen another 20 percent cooling.
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Jayesh Mehta, MD, Bank of America says for the rupee to break 61/UISD levels huge equity inflows would be required.
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Irrespective of Fed‘s decision on its monetary stimulus plan, the rupee won‘t go to 63/USD and beyond, says Jayesh Mehta, Managing Director & Country Treasurer, Bank of America.
