The spreads beyond 10-year bond yield have widened and the curve has steepened
In union Budget 2025, gross market borrowing numbers announced by the government was around 6 percent higher for next financial year, as compared to current fiscal year.
In the first half of current financial year, the Centre has borrowed nearly Rs 7 lakh crore and plans to borrow Rs 6.61 lakh crore in the second half.
In July, 2024, Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman announced the gross borrowing target from the markets in 2024-25 of Rs 14.01 lakh crore to finance its fiscal deficit of 4.9 percent of the GDP.
The yield on the 364-day treasury bill dipped to 6.7240% in an auction on Wednesday, the least since September 2022. The yield on other very short-dated papers also dipped.
The share of interest payments to GDP was 3.6 percent, while the share of the capex outlay was 3.2 percent in FY24, according to a Crisil report, on rising interest expenses.
Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman in a speech presenting the full Budget for 2024-25, said the Centre marginally cut the gross borrowing target from the markets in 2024-25 to Rs 14.01 lakh crore to finance its fiscal deficit of 4.9 percent of the GDP.
In the interim budget on February 1, the central government said it would borrow Rs 14.13 lakh crore from the markets in 2024-25 in gross terms to finance its fiscal deficit of 5.1 percent of the GDP.
In April-September, the size of the weekly government bond auctions will range from Rs 22,000 crore to Rs 38,000 crore.
The RBI will leverage on the fiscal restraint shown by the central government and is likely to deliver rate cuts in the second half of FY25
The interim Budget for the fiscal year 2024-25 will be presented by Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman on February 1
The interim Budget for the fiscal year 2024-25 will be presented by Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman on February 1.
The government does not plan to issue any Green Bonds in April-September, the finance ministry said
However, some non-SLR portfolios may see a rise in MTM losses as spread on these instruments has widened by 5-7 bps, they said.
Easing of inflation and lower-than-expected government borrowings in the next financial year could take the benchmark bond yield to 7.10-7.20 percent, experts said.
Union Budget 2023: The Centre's borrowing is among the most important determinants of interest rates in the economy. Higher-than-expected government borrowings can push up rates for all bond issuers, sovereign and corporate
The central government may continue to tread the path of gradual fiscal consolidation and lower the deficit by 50 basis points, say economists.
The upcoming Union Budget would likely remain focused on growth as concerns about inflation diminish, says the Chief Investment Officer – Fixed Income at the fund house.
Upside risks to inflation could emanate from rising Covid cases in China, and if cases in India rise as well, that could again disrupt supply chains.
The yield on the 10-year benchmark government bond should hover around the 7.25-7.50 percent mark and may ease below this range as most negatives are already factored in
The need to spend on public works and highlight its development objectives may prompt the government to borrow more in the next budget.
The central government will also issue the much-awaited Green Bonds as part of its borrowing programme in the second half of the financial year.
The bank welcomed the restoration of the LAF corridor at 50bps and also raised an important question about RBI supporting government borrowing.
CNBC-TV18 has learnt from sources that both the government and the Reserve Bank of India are likely to be ready with the framework for issuing green bonds by the end of May.