Indian exporters have rushed their US-bound shipments ahead of the August 27 tariff deadline. Exports to America have risen around 22 percent on-year so far in this fiscal till July, which is higher than the trend of 17-18 percent growth rate.
So far in June, crude prices have rallied 24 percent to reach $75 per barrel, building on a 4 percent gain in May. The Strait of Hormuz—a strategic chokepoint that handles nearly 20 percent of global oil flows—is now at the center of concern, with markets pricing in potential supply disruptions.
However, during the first half of the current fiscal (April-September), the current account deficit remained flat at 1.2 percent or $21.4 billion on a year-on-year basis.
The narrowing of India's trade deficit in FY24 is largely attributed to a reduction in net imports of oil, chemicals, ores and minerals. But the recent uptick in crude prices owing to the flare-up in the conflict in the Middle East may pose a risk to the country's external balances going ahead.
For the April-December period of the ongoing financial year, India’s current account deficit moderated to 1.2 percent of GDP from 2.6 percent in the corresponding period a year ago on the back of a lower merchandise trade deficit.
The Indian current account deficit for July- September 2023-24 fell to $ 8.3 billion as compared to a deficit of $ 30.9 billion in the same period last year and $ 9.2 billion in the previous quarter
For the first half of 2023-24, India's current account deficit more than halved to $17.5 bn from $48.8 bn in April-September 2022, Reserve Bank of India data showed.
India's merchandise trade deficit hit an all-time high of $31.46 billion in October as gold imports nearly doubled from last year. But economists remain untroubled and are sticking to their full-year forecasts for the current account deficit
According to data released on September 28 by the Reserve Bank of India, India's Current Account Deficit surged to $9.2 billion in the first quarter of 2023-24
In the January-March quarter, India's current account deficit was $1.3 billion, the Reserve Bank of India said
A sharp sequential uptick in goods imports driven by a pick-up in inbound shipments of oil led to an increase of nearly 17 percent in India’s merchandise trade deficit in August compared to July.
Modern services are non-IT services, basically consulting jobs that are being done out of India or parts of consulting jobs being done out of India or engineering or high-end technical services.
The home currency got a boost after India's current account deficit for the March quarter of FY23 narrowed amid moderation in the trade deficit
India's current account deficit in March quarter stood at $1.3 billion against surplus expected by economists.
The latest survey of 22 economists showed the current account balance likely recorded a surplus of $3.3 billion, or 0.4% of gross domestic product (GDP), in the last quarter of the 2022/23 fiscal year.
Despite the rate hikes by Fed and US banking turmoil, FPI flows into equities have been on an upswing since March this year.
The report 'From India to Canada: Economic Impact and Engagement' launched by Union Commerce and Industry Minister Piyush Goyal during his visit to the city is the first known attempt to capture Indian Industry's growing Canadian presence.
India's current account deficit narrowed more-than-expected to $18.2 billion in the last quarter of 2022
As a percentage of GDP, October-December current account deficit is 2.2 percent compared to 3.7 percent in July-September and 2.7 percent in October-December 2021
The median forecast of 22 economists polled March 16-23 showed a current account deficit of $23.0 billion in October-December 2022, or 2.7% of gross domestic product (GDP). Forecasts ranged from $15.0-$28.0 billion, or 2.0%-3.2% of GDP.
“We are expecting modest recessions in Europe, US, but by the second half of the year, the worst of it will start to fade and we should be on a path of recovery when it comes to exports. But there will be a very gradual recovery in exports."
RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das said core inflation remains sticky even though headline numbers softened in the months of November and December.
India’s current account deficit widened to $36.4 billion or 4.4 of GDP in the third quarter of 2022, from $18.2 billion or 2.2 percent of GDP in the second quarter
As a percentage of GDP, India's July-September CAD is 4.4 percent compared to 2.2 percent in April-June and 1.3 percent in July-September 2021
Falling exports and commodity prices will also help the country print in a moderate CAD at USD 24-26 billion in Q3FY23 from a likely high of USD31-34 billion in Q2FY23.