Motilal Oswal's research report on Page Industries
PAG reported a revenue decline (8.4% YoY/8.7% QoQ) in 2QFY24 due to subdued consumer demand and a slowdown across all categories. Volume also declined by 8.8% YoY in 2Q and 7.6% YoY in 1HFY24. GP margin contracted 130bp YoY but improved 240bp QoQ, aided by stable raw material costs. EBITDA improved YoY/QoQ on operational efficiency. The management aims to maintain EBITDA margins around 19-21% in FY24. The medium-term sales and earnings outlook remains uncertain for PAG. We maintain our Neutral rating on the stock due to elevated valuations.
Outlook
PAG’s medium-term earnings prospects have improved due to investments made in distribution, designs and technology. RoCE is likely to be ~40%, after falling to the late 30s in FY20 and FY21. However, given high valuation at 55x FY25E EPS, we retain Neutral on PAG with a revised TP of INR37,400.
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