Ten implications of Nitish Kumar’s gharwapsi to NDA

Nitish Kumar has done it once again, rejoins the NDA.

Nitish Kumar has done it once again with another somersault to rejoin the NDA, ditching the INDIA bloc ahead of the 2024 general elections.

Here are the 10 implications of this latest Nitish “palti”:

Seven Positives For BJP

1. The losses which were expected to the NDA tally in Bihar may now be minimised with JD(U) joining the BJP+LJP (two factions)+HAM+RLSP combination. NDA won 39/40 seats in Bihar in 2019 and surveys had suggested a dent of 10-15 seats if JD(U)+RJD+INC+Left contested together.

2. The entry of JD(U) into NDA neutralises the narrative to some extent that BJP is losing allies due to its strong arm tactics. With JD(S) and JD(U) in its fold, BJP positions itself as a party that is acceptable pan-India.

3. Nitish’s return deflates the caste census pitch of the opposition to a good extent. He is the only CM to publish a caste census report. The Congress failed to do it in the states it has been in power like Karnataka, Chhattisgarh and Rajasthan, rendering Rahul Gandhi’s “jitni abadi utna haq” chant hypocritical to a great extent.

4. With JD(U) back, NDA is close to touching its tally of 353 Lok Sabha seats in 2019. NDA numbers have now become 349 (333 + 16). Nitish Kumar’s re-entry gives a fillip to NDA’s Mission 50 percent vote share and 400+ seats. Now NDA is just 50-short of the magical figure assuming it is able to hold on to its 2019 tally. BJP candidates were runner up in 72 seats in 2019, a 10 percentage point swing in BJP’s favour (+5 percent BJP & -5 percent to the 2019 winning party) could lead to an addition of 38 seats to the BJP tally.

5. The INDIA bloc with the exit of JD(U) is close to reverting back to UPA as the TMC and AAP alliance doesn’t appear to be happening in Bengal and Punjab. In UP, SP has given a 11 seat take-it or leave-it offer to Congress, with which it is not happy, and in Maharashtra a weakened Shiv Sena (UBT) is demanding 23 seats out of 48, putting the three-party Maha Vikas Aghadi in a spot of bother.

6. From an optics perspective, it is a big setback to the INDIA bloc as the sutradhar of the bloc (Nitish) has quit the alliance in frustration over Congress’s dilly dallying attitude. The washing of dirty linen in public doesn’t give confidence to supporters of opposition parties who were counting on the INDIA bloc.

Read: Nitish Kumar to return to NDA? A look at the JD(U) leader's rollercoaster ride with BJP

7. The Nitish exit also sends a wrong message to neutral/swing voters that all is not well in INDIA, and that it is a bundle of contractions, which doesn’t have the heft, cohesion or ideological clarity to defeat BJP.

Not All Doom-And-Gloom for RJD-Congress-Left

8. However, the Nitish return is a setback of sorts for the local leadership of BJP in Bihar who have been trying to build the party on its standalone strength, and slowly but steadily improving its base among lower OBCs. Piggybacking again on Nitish makes BJP dependent on the socialist for the 2025 Vidhan Sabha elections.

9. This also in a way helps Tejashwi Yadav emerge as the alternative to Nitish in the state ahead of 2025. He had led a spirited campaign in 2020 and almost defeated the NDA had Congress not underperformed. This would help him further consolidate the anti-BJP/anti-Nitish vote in his favour.

10. The NDA now becomes an oversized coalition with six partners. There is also past friction between Chirag Paswan and Nitish, Chirag and uncle Pasupati Kumar Paras, Upendra Kushwaha and Nitish, Jiten Ram Manjhi and Nitish. It will be difficult for BJP to manage these bitter rivals. Seat sharing can become a headache. Further Deputy Chief Ministers Samrat Chaudhary and Vijay Sinha have been fierce critics of Nitish, which could impact the smooth running of the government.

Also read | Nitish Kumar's political journey: From humble beginnings to key ministerial roles and 9th term as CM

How Nitish is able to do such somersaults with ease and perfection is an art in itself. However, his acts reek of opportunism and show an increasing lack of morality in Indian politics.

Amitabh Tiwari is a former corporate and investment banker-turned political strategist and commentator. Twitter: @politicalbaaba. Views are personal, and do not represent the stance of this publication.