Hemmed in by both BJP and RJD, Nitish pursues another opportunity to survive

Nitish's survival instincts have kicked in again

If you can’t beat them, join them. This quote best explains Bihar chief minister and Janata Dal (U) president Nitish Kumar’s latest decision to switch sides and align with the Bharatiya Janata Party once again.

Coming on the eve of the forthcoming Lok Sabha election, the 72-year-old longest- serving Bihar chief minister’s fourth somersault was a tacit admission that the Narendra Modi-led BJP is set to return to power for a record third time, that his own position has weakened considerably and that his political interests would be best served if he joins the winning side.

Nitish’s Shrinking Political Space

Over the past few weeks, reports from Bihar had suggested that Nitish Kumar was battling for political space. On one hand, his Prime Ministerial ambitions took a knock when West Bengal chief minister Mamata Banerjee and her Delhi counterpart Arvind Kejriwal upstaged him by suggesting that Congress president Mallikarjun Kharge be named as the INDIA bloc’s Prime Ministerial candidate.

And on the other hand, a predatory BJP was making moves to poach a number of Janata Dal (U) legislators while his numerically-stronger alliance partner in the state, the Rashtriya Janata Dal, was becoming increasingly assertive. Faced with the prospect of a split in his party and, at the same time, losing out on a   preeminent position in the opposition coalition, Nitish Kumar obviously thought his best option was to exit the INDIA bloc before it was too late.

To that extent, Nitish Kumar’s latest gambit is, at best, a move to save face and save his party. “He had no choice…Nitish would have been left high and dry if he lost his party,” remarked a political observer in Bihar.

It was no secret in Patna’s political circles that a number of Janata Dal (U) MPs and MLAs were in touch with the BJP as they were not sure about retaining their seats if Nitish Kumar persisted with his alliance with the RJD and the Congress. On its part, the BJP was also making strenuous efforts to woo Nitish Kumar’s legislators.

A large section in the Janata Dal (U) wanted Nitish Kumar to renew the party’s partnership with the BJP as it was convinced that the opposition coalition would not succeed in unseating the present dispensation at the Centre. Contrary to their earlier belief, Narendra Modi’s popularity was yet to be dented even after ten years in office. On the other hand, his image had enhanced further after the recent consecration ceremony of the Ram Temple at Ayodhya, making him an invincible adversary.

Disillusionment with RJD, Congress, INDIA Bloc

While pressure from his party was building up, Nitish Kumar had simultaneously become disillusioned with the functioning of the 28-party INDIA bloc. The Janata Dal (U) leader felt particularly slighted at being marginalized since he had taken the initiative in bringing the disparate opposition parties together last year. No doubt, he was not doing so with an altruistic motive.

There is no denying that he was keen on being named convener of the INDIA bloc which would have automatically pitched him as its Prime Ministerial face. Having been welcomed back by the RJD and Congress like the proverbial prodigal son after he dumped the BJP in 2022, Nitish Kumar believed he was ready for an upgrade and a role befitting his stature. But that was not to be.

At the same time, Nitish Kumar’s relations with the RJD came under strain. The two allies had lately been constantly sniping at each other. While RJD’s Tejashwi Yadav felt he was not getting his due as deputy chief minister, Nitish Kumar suspected that his ally was planning to split his party and anoint Tejashwi as chief minister. It was precisely for this reason that Nitish Kumar moved in quickly to take over the presidency of his party from the incumbent Lalan Singh. It had become well-known in Patna that Singh had become close to RJD leader Lalu Prasad Yadav and that there was a distinct possibility that he could aid him in spiriting away a section of Janata Dal (U) MLAs.

Hemmed in from all sides, the pragmatist Nitish Kumar chose to overlook his past tension-ridden relationship with the BJP and chose to join hands with it once again. He had first severed his ties with the BJP in 2013 as he was unhappy that the BJP had named Narendra Modi as its Prime Ministerial candidate. The two teamed up again in the 2019 Lok Sabha election, only to part ways in 2022 as Nitish Kumar felt the BJP was constantly undermining him.

Over the years, Nitish Kumar managed to survive as chief minister, irrespective of the party he partnered with. The cunning politician that he is, Nitish Kumar has, over the years, honed his survival instincts. How far will he go this time round ? Only time will tell.

Anita Katyal is a Delhi-based independent journalist. Views are personal, and do not represent the stand of this publication.