Viju Cherian
West Bengal Chief Minister and Trinamool Congress (TMC) leader Mamata Banerjee will host a mega opposition rally in Kolkata on Saturday, January 19, to present a united opposition of anti-Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) parties ahead of the general elections.
Leaders and representatives from the Samajwadi Party, the Bahujan Samaj Party, the Aam Aadmi Party, Janata Dal (Secular), the Telugu Desam Party, the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam, the National Conference, the Nationalist Congress Party, the Rashtriya Janata Dal, and the Congress are expected to attend Banerjee’s ‘United India’ rally.
The rally will give a fillip to Banerjee’s claim for the top job in Delhi if the opposition is in a position to form a government after the elections.
Speaking about the rally, Banerjee said that it "will sound the death knell for BJP” and added, “…they (BJP) will not cross more than 125 [Lok Sabha] seats”. Given that her party will be facing the BJP in the state her prediction is likely to boost the morale of the TMC cadre.
However, the rally will also send an important message to the Congress — this was evident in the CM’s statement: "The federal parties, that is the regional parties, will be the deciding factor after the elections.”
The ambiguity surrounding Congress’ place in the opposition arises because of two factors. One, for many regional parties the Congress is a rival or potential rival in their respective states. In addition to the BJP, for the SP and BSP in Uttar Pradesh and for the TMC in West Bengal, the Congress is also a rival party.
The second factor is the growth of the Congress in the last year has made regional parties uncomfortable. As long as the grand old party was on the back foot it suited the regional parties to include the Congress in the coalition against the BJP. This changed after the December state elections where the Congress not only performed well but also managed to form the government in three important Hindi-heartland states. Thus, a rising and powerful Congress does not fit into the mould set for it by regional parties in the opposition space.
Banerjee’s stress on “regional parties” becoming “the deciding factor” should be seen in this light.
The absence of Naveen Patnaik’s Biju Janata Dal (BJD) and K Chandrashekar Rao’s Telangana Rashtra Samithi (TRS) from Banerjee’s rally in many way weakens the grand alliance or united opposition. The TRS’ strong presence in Telangana and the likely challenge it will pose in neighbouring Andhra Pradesh makes Rao an important leader in the post-poll scenario.
Banerjee’s TMC has 34 of the 42 Lok Sabha seats from West Bengal making it the fourth-largest party in the current Lok Sabha. Her clout in national arena will be determined if she retains or betters that tally. This will be a challenge with BJP President Amit Shah stressing on strengthening the party in West Bengal. Also, if it fails to strike a pre-poll deal with the Congress, the TMC will face a multi-cornered attack in West Bengal.
From time-to-time the united opposition (or grand alliance or mahagathbandhan) will have to remind the electorate that it is a cohesive unit working towards one goal. For that, such shows of strength — much like tripod stances in the animal kingdom — are important. In the meantime, it has to not only fight the BJP but also keep in check the contradicting interests of its member leaders.
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