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Indian markets surged 2.55% on trade deal hopes, but intraday volatility and bearish options positioning reveal investor caution beneath the surface optimism.
India's measured response to Trump's tariff announcement reveals a sophisticated strategy of using trade as geopolitical leverage while protecting strategic autonomy
The India–US trade deal has taken pressure off the currency. The real question is whether flows and fundamentals can do the rest.
RBI’s latest sector-wise credit data shows demand is broad-based and resilient, but the message to Mint Road is clear: this is growth that still needs watching, not cheering.
The India-US trade deal has brightened the prospects for growth and the exchange rate. The first reduces the need to cut rates and the second reduces the RBI’s need to intervene.
With a large manufacturing base, India can emerge as a credible supplier of solar modules and cells to the US
Tariffs are important but not everything. Latent protectionism shows up in legal challenges, legislative blockades and dramatic U-turns. For India, there’s a lot of follow-up to be done in both EU and the US
The Centre’s gross borrowing figure of Rs 17.2 lakh crore for FY27 significantly exceeded market expectations, which were pegged between Rs 16.5 lakh crore and Rs 17 lakh crore. This elevated borrowing requirement coincides with a persisting slowdown in tax revenue.
The budget math appears credible with modest estimates of tax receipts and expenditure. Ultimately, this budget reinforces India's trajectory as a resilient pillar of global economic growth.
The 2026 Budget may not generate immediate excitement, but it sends a more meaningful message that India is moving beyond stimulus-driven expansion toward a model where competitiveness, efficiency and structure determine the quality of growth, said Anand Rathi.
Trade deals are always about give and take. But with President Trump, it is often unclear what — and how much — one may need to give in return. Expectations, therefore, should be tempered. Yet, compared to the prospect of facing 50% tariffs, it represents a clear improvement
The Budget’s overarching message is one of credibility over theatrics, continuity over abrupt pivoting, and execution over experimentation.
The trade deal provides a boost to growth. Also, CPI and GDP are set to undergo base revisions, making forecasts tricky. Therefore, MPC may pause on rates while RBI continues to support liquidity
On the surface, the deal reads like a typical Trump-era headline deal. Underneath, it is a structural shift and India is the clear economic beneficiary, although with T&C (terms and conditions).
Lower tariffs, broader market access, and deeper energy cooperation support growth and long-term alignment.
Budget 2026 prioritises fiscal credibility while embedding employment in sectoral choices, exports and human capital. The shift is deliberate and medium-term. Job-led growth will ultimately depend on execution and state capacity
Like humans, rules will need to be set and comings and goings tracked, highlighting how managers will always be needed
The 16th Finance Commission charts a bolder path to 3.5% fiscal deficit and 47.6% debt-to-GDP by 2030-31 than the Union Budget 2026-27’s more measured steps, yet both signal a shared commitment to long-term fiscal discipline
Gold and silver ETFs are trading at a sharp discount, putting retail investors wishing to exit at a disadvantage. The risks of excessive leverage are playing out
Government data shows that customs duty foregone on imports on account of FTAs amounts to a significant figure, which will hopefully be offset by higher exports, which at the net level is expected to benefit the economy
India’s cotton textiles were grappling with potential loss of share in the large US market and rising costs on home turf
The Union Budget reinforces fiscal consolidation through disciplined deficit targets and higher capital expenditure. Targeted tax reforms support infrastructure-led growth, boost manufacturing competitiveness, expand services, and strengthen the financial sector
Hydro pumped storage projects use more components made in India compared to battery energy storage systems
A significant number of biologics are expected to lose patent protection, opening up a large business opportunity for biosimilars
Shedding corporate loans and going full throttle on retail was a survival strategy which now must change
