A top military reshuffle in Pakistan is always big news. In the scheme of things across the border, the appointment or extension to the Chief of Army Staff (COAS) or the naming of a new ISI boss are no routine appointments.
They can have far reaching political repercussions.
On October 7, the appointment of Lt Gen Nadeem Ahmed Anjum as the new director general of the ISI in place of high-profile Lt Gen Faiz Hameed, who goes as commander of the 11 Corps in Peshawar, was greeted with the importance it deserves in a country, where the military is pretty much the de facto boss.
Pakistan’s leading newspaper Dawn noted as much: ``The change of command at the ISI notified on Wednesday is the single most consequential development in recent months, according to Red Zone insiders. Given the nature of the country’s political situation, this change at the top of the agency is expected to spawn many major and minor ripples in critical areas.”
After the retirement of three lieutenant generals this month, seven more three-star officers will superannuate before Army Chief General Qamar Javed Bajwa completes his tenure in November 2022.
According to Pakistani media reports, by then, the outgoing ISI chief Gen Hameed will be one of the four who will be senior-most to take over from Gen Bajwa. In other words, the writing is on the wall. Gen Hameed should take over as the new COAS.
Or is it?
Former Indian DGMO, Lt Gen Vinod Bhatia (retd), believes two things are possible; one, given Gen Hameed’s remarkable record in sewing up the Afghanistan alliance for Pakistan as ISI chief, to the government formation after the Taliban took over, he is going to be rewarded. Two, it is also likely that by appearing openly in Kabul on the eve of the government formation, he has exceeded his brief, hence the shift out of ISI.
For the former DGMO, the timing of this move is difficult to comprehend. ``Had it taken place in November this year, it made sense. Hameed would have a year to go to complete his tenure as a Corps Commander and he would still be in the running, given his seniority,” but a year, he notes wryly, ``is a long time in Pakistan.”
The outgoing ISI chief will head the 11 Corp at Peshawar, given its proximity to Afghanistan. Among the top four in the reckoning for the COAS after Bajwa superannuates, three have already commanded Corps.
Lt Gen Sahir Shamshad Mirza is currently commander of the Rawalpindi 10 Corps. Lt Gen Azhar Abbas, the current Chief of General Staff at the General Head Quarters (GHQ), has previously commanded 10 Corps, while Lt Gen Nauman Mahmood was commander of the Peshawar 11 Corps before being posted as president of the National Defence University earlier this week. With Gen Hameed's new appointment, all the top four generals are qualified to run for the top slot.
As DG ISI, Lt Gen Faiz Hameed played a key role in shaping and executing Pakistan’s Afghan policy. He was one of the central figures in helping patch together the Doha talks between the US and Taliban.
Noted the Dawn: ``As per convention, the GHQ sends four names to the prime minister for consideration as the next COAS. These names are usually from the same Pakistan Military Academy (PMA) course that is the senior most at the time of the appointment.''
Lt Gen HS Panag (Retd) told Moneycontrol that the Pakistan Prime Minister does have a say in the system of selecting the COAS ``because, there are so many contenders that even corp commanders do not know.” In his view, despite much speculation, there is little doubt that the outgoing ISI chief is being groomed for the highest post, given his role in Afghanistan.
However, Gen Nadeem has been at the receiving end of accusations by PML-N chief Nawaz Sharif and his daughter and vice-president, Maryam Nawaz.
In a fresh petition submitted before the Islamabad High Court on October 5, Maryam Nawaz alleged the ISI's role in the conviction of former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif, herself as well as her husband Captain (retd) Safdar in the assets beyond means case.
Following the Panama Papers scandal in 2016, Imran Khan, now Prime Minister, had filed a petition in the Supreme Court court which declared Nawaz Sharif unfit for holding the top office and ordered an accountability court to open references against him and his family and other respondents.
On July 6, 2018 the accountability court judge had convicted the trio in the Avenfield Apartment reference and handed them jail terms of 10, seven and one year respectively, for owning assets beyond known sources of income.
Since then, the PML-N supreme leader has launched a tirade against the Pakistan Army alleging their role in his ouster. This time again, Maryam took to Twitter and shared the pages of her petition, which she said had not been reported by the media and said the “case/verdict against me was pre-planned, orchestrated and influenced by Gen Faiz Hameed, the then DG [counter-intelligence]”.
Says Gen Bhatia: ``this is a direct challenge to the Pakistani Army. If they touch her, it is a problem, if they don’t, it is a bigger problem.”
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