Netanyahu's Conundrum: Striking a balance between hostage release and fighting Hamas poses complex challenge for Bibi

Israel Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu

The release of 51 Israeli hostages and 150 Palestinian prisoners over the past few days of the truce in the Israeli-Hamas war has brought joy and relief to both countries.

In addition, 17 Thai citizens, one Filipino, and one dual Russian-Israeli national have also been released by Hamas in separate negotiations.

However, the release of these people from captivity has also raised an important question: What will happen after the truce gets over?

The current four-day ceasefire was to end on Monday.

Israel and Hamas have agreed to extend it by two more days to allow more people to be freed from captivity.

After the two swaps, perhaps a third can happen before the deadline is over.

As part of the Qatar-brokered deal, Hamas has promised to release 50 Israeli hostages in exchange for 150 Palestinian prisoners from Israel’s custody.

But Hamas will still have close to 200 hostages with it, and only a small number of Palestinian prisoners out of the total of 8,000 will be released by Israel as part of the swap.

Nevertheless, the brief ceasefire has raised expectations in the region and beyond and posed a huge challenge to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

The ceasefire and its extension allow Hamas to regroup, and Israel risks losing the momentum of the war.

But cutting short the truce allows more hostages to remain in Hamas' custody.

The current phase of the Israel-Palestinian war was sparked by a surprise Hamas attack on Israel that killed 1,200 people and allowed Hamas fighters to take away 250 Israeli hostages.

Israel has launched a military operation in Gaza — a Hamas stronghold, in the wake of the attack, killing over 13,000 Palestinians.

Netanyahu has vowed to finish Hamas and claims the war has not ended.

But the release of the 51  hostages has given the families of those still in Hamas’ custody hope that their loved ones will also be released soon.

Netanyahu faces three problems

There are regular demonstrations outside the central command of the Israeli military in Tel Aviv.

There is rising demand that the government make the release of hostages a top priority, even at the cost of scaling down the military operations.

Israel said it is prepared to grant another day’s pause for every 10 hostages that Hamas releases beyond the 50 outlined in the agreement.

However, experts feel that Hamas can use this to stretch the ceasefire by using the release of hostages as bait.

The Israeli security establishment argues that each day of ceasefire allows that much time for Hamas to regroup and rearm itself.

It also allows it to win wider support from Palestinians by getting more prisoners released from Israeli custody and forcing larger amounts of food, medicine, and aid to come into Gaza.

However, the hard-right in Israel wants Netanyahu to fulfil his promise of crushing Hamas.

Much of his government’s support comes from them, and to satisfy the hardliners, Netanyahu is facing pressure to end the ceasefire soon.

But this in turn can jeopardise the early release of more hostages and raise doubt about their safety.

Hamas has said that it is willing to release all the hostages in its custody in exchange for all the Palestinian prisoners in Israeli jails.

If this is agreed upon, it will allow Hamas at least another 20 days, experts say.

Israel now wants to start its military operations in the south of the Gaza Strip.

But there is widespread apprehension that if what has been done in the north during the military operation is repeated, it will increase the number of deaths.

On the other hand, prolonging the ceasefire bolsters Hamas’ chance to regroup.

Importantly, the delay may lead Israel to lose the momentum of the war.

This can also allow world leaders to rally more stoutly to oppose the resumption of the war.

The third challenge to Netanyahu may come from his strongest supporter, United States President Joe Biden.

Biden had so far supported the Israeli Prime Minister’s war efforts wholeheartedly.

But Netanyahu’s urgency to finish the war quickly and his attempt to decimate Hamas could lead to a significant number of deaths of both Palestinian people in Gaza and Israeli soldiers.

Moreover, if any of the hostages were killed during this operation, it could turn the mood of most Israelis against Netanyahu and his war cabinet.

The Israeli Prime Minister has already been under tremendous political pressure from across the country for his controversial judicial reforms.

With the deaths of Israeli hostages in the crossfire and no guarantee that its military operation will be able to crush Hamas, Netanyahu faces a serious dilemma.

Sooner or later, the truce may end. But with no clear objective in sight — whether the release of hostages or crushing Hamas should get priority — the beleaguered Israeli Prime Minister is left with hardly any good options.