Lok Sabha Polls Phase 2 | From caste to potatoes, these factors are likely to impact voting in eight seats of UP

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It is often said that the road to Delhi (read South Block) goes via Uttar Pradesh. As another batch of eight constituencies goes to polls on April 18, let’s take a look at what is at play in these seats — Nagina, Amroha, Bulandshahr, Aligarh, Hathras, Mathura, Agra and Fatehpur Sikri.

Candidates

A total of 85 candidates are in the fray this year as compared to 125 in the 2014 Lok Sabha elections. Of the 85, there are 26 Independents.

In addition, 19 candidates, of the total 85, have declared criminal records against them; 14 of them being serious criminal cases.

As per the declaration of their assets, 34 are crorepatis, with BJP’s Mathura candidate Hema Malini being the fourth richest candidate having assets worth Rs 250 crore.

Among those with lowest assets, Ambedkari Hansuram Ambedkari, who's fighting on an IND ticket from Agra, has declared total assets worth Rs 1,200.

Past Patterns

In the 2014 general election, the BJP had swept these eight seats with huge victory margins. Bhola Singh, BJP’s candidate from Bulandshahr, had a victory margin of over 40 lakh votes.

However, if the votes pulled by the SP-BSP-RLD combine in the 2014 Lok Sabha election are taken into account against that of the BJP, the former would have won Fatehpur Sikri, Nagina and Amroha, but would have lost Hathras, Mathura, Bulandshahr, Aligarh and Agra to the saffron party.

This time around

The BJP has retained five winning candidates including Hema Malini, but has replaced Rajesh Diwakar with Rajvir Diler Balmiki in Hathras, which is a reserved seat. In addition, the saffron party has named Satya Pal Singh Baghel from Agra, also a reserved seat, sending sitting MP Ram Shankar Katehria to Etawah. Banking on Jat votes, the BJP has fielded Rajkumar Chahar from Fatehpur Sikri, replacing sitting MP Chaudhary Babulal, who has been denied a ticket which has irked his supporters.

Fatehpur Sikri will be witnessing a three-cornered battle with Chahar, Congress’ UP chief Raj Babbar and BSP’s Guddu Pandit, who is a turncoat.

On the other hand, after battling through a series of faux pas in the public relations department, Hema Malini is seeking a second term from Mathura, fighting against RLD’s Narendra Singh. Veteran actor Dharmendra also campaigned for wife Malini in Mathura.

BJP MP Satish Gautam, infamous for kicking the Jinnah controversy in Aligarh Muslim University, has also been retained by the BJP and is seeking a re-election in Aligarh, banking on the 27 percent upper caste votes. However, the OBCs and Dalits in favour of the SP-BSP combine could upset the apple cart.

Split Vote

Nagina and Amroha are both dominated by strong Muslim presence – 42 percent and 36 percent respectively. They also have a significant population of minorities.

It is important to note, although, that the Congress and Shivpal Yadav’s Progressive Democratic Alliance (PDA) are expected to eat into the voteshare of an otherwise favoured SP-BSP-RLD alliance. In fact, the Congress is playing spoilsport in Nagina, a reserved constituency, by fielding former BJP MLA Omwati Jatav, who is expected to split the Dalit vote.

However, in Amroha, where BJP’s Kanwar Singh Tanwar is in a neck-and-neck battle with gathbandhan’s candidate Kunwar Danish Ali, the Congress has fielded a less-known Jat candidate Sachin Choudhary. Considering the dominance of Muslims in this constituency, the Congress had earlier fielded Rashid ALvi, but later replaced him to prevent splitting of votes.

Issues

While falling sugarcane prices posed a threat to the ruling BJP in the sugarcane belt of Uttar Pradesh which went to polls in the first phase, the low prices of potatoes is a major concern for the saffron party in the second phase.

In fact, the humble tuber has now become more popular for its political value than its calories, especially with Congress President Rahul Gandhi and UP General Secretary (East) Priyanka Gandhi slamming the BJP over the price of potatoes.

The issue is a major concern in Fatehpur Sikri, Agra, Hathras and Aligarh. Farm distress is rampant with peasants not getting the adequate price for their produce and merchants not even buying from cold storage.

Farmers have collectively voiced their dissent against the ruling BJP in the potato belt. Pradeep Sharma, a farmer from Fatehpur Sikri, told the media, “In the last five years, I have accumulated a debt of Rs 35 lakh. I have attempted committing suicide. I took my produce to sell in Maharashtra but could get only Rs 490 for it.  I put that money in an envelope and sent it to the prime minister. This debt of mine will definitely cost the BJP in this election.”