Lok Sabha Polls: Anti-incumbency, Ayyappan and the Church in Kerala’s Pathanamthitta

Election campaign vehicles for LDF candidate Veena George, at Panachikara, in Pathanamthitta LS constituency

Panachikara junction is a small, non-descript, sleepy two-shop road intersection which has not caught up with the chaos and noise that signifies urban India. Tucked in the hills of the Western Ghats, this village within the forest range hardly features on Kerala’s political map.

However, today it is buzzing. The junction is covered in a sea of red flags and its bus stand is chock-a-block with people. The lone tea shop is doing brisk business. “This is usually a quiet place. Now, since it is elections, such noise is expected,” the manager who doubles as the tea master says.

Suddenly from one side, a convoy of vehicles carrying Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) flags cuts through this sea of red. Both parties raise the pitch of sloganeering, but after a few minutes, the cacophony dissolves and the tension subsides. The BJP convoy was heading to a nearby village where the party’s candidate is expected to address a gathering.

In the midst of this, like a child lost in a mela, a man wearing a hat featuring the Congress’ symbol appears from nowhere. Imagine during an Indian Premium League (IPL) match between the Delhi Capitals and Mumbai Indians, you see a spectator wearing a Chennai Super Kings yellow jersey with ‘MS Dhoni’ written on it!

A few minutes later, the sloganeering fervour again picks up and this time it is to welcome Veena George, the Communist Party of India (Marxist)-led Left Democratic Front (LDF) candidate. George, who is also a sitting Member of the Legislative Assembly (MLA), gives a quick speech where she highlights the reasons why she should be elected and appeals to the people gathered there to protect democracy. After her speech, she greets the crowd, speaks to a few people and is off to the next junction.

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In about 10 minutes Panachikara junction returns to being a small, non-descript, sleepy two-shop road intersection.

Why is Pathanamthitta important

Panachikara falls under the Pathanamthitta Lok Sabha constituency — a constituency set for a stiff three-way battle between the Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF), the LDF and the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA). Traditionally, Kerala has seen a bipolar electoral contest between the LDF and the UDF. Over the years, the BJP has emerged as the third front and today can give the two old parties in the state a run for their money.

To understand why the three fronts are hopeful of winning the seat, it is important to recap the recent past of this district.

Air quality in Pathanamthitta is among the best in India and the district does exceptionally well on various health indices. However, what’s kept it in the news in the recent months is the protests surrounding the entry of women between the age group of 10 and 50 into the Ayyappan temple at Sabarimala, in Pathanamthitta. Over the past few decades, women in this age group have been discouraged from entering the temple.

Following a Supreme Court order in September 2018 permitting the entry of women into the temple, protests broke out across the state. While the Congress and the BJP were quick to side with the protesters and demand that women be denied entry into the temple, the CPI(M)-led government was in favour of the SC order.

In the weeks and months that followed the SC order, the protests grew, Left party leaders started speaking in different voices and many of the steps taken by the Pinarayi Vijayan-led government came under harsh scrutiny. Many interpret the government’s actions in the Sabarimala case as those against a belief system and tradition — this is an emotive issue which is expected to find resonance across religious lines.

It is expected that the BJP, and to a lesser extent the Congress, will benefit from the stand they have taken on this issue. It is widely believed that the Left will face a backlash, especially in the southern/central districts of Kerala for its handling of the protests.

Church withdraws support

This, along with the state government's far-from-satisfactory implementation of flood relief work, could work against George at the polling booth. Another factor which could work against her electoral prospects is the apparent withdrawal of support from the Orthodox Church.

It is widely believed that the church played a major role in supporting George during the 2016 assembly polls. This time, however, that support is missing. Support from the minority community is crucial at a time when it is expected that the Hindu majority in the district will not back Left candidates.

The anti-incumbency hurdle

Under normal circumstances, the Left’s disadvantage should work in favour of the Congress. This time, that might not be the case. In the two elections (2009 and 2014) that have been held since it became a parliamentary constituency, the Congress has won the Pathanamthitta seat. The Congress feels it can win a hat-trick and has fielded its sitting Member of Parliament Anto Antony. However, over the years, Antony has earned the tag of a non-performer. Even Congress workers this author spoke to found it hard to defend Antony’s case.

Under normal circumstances, Antony would have had an easy win — after all, both in 2009 and 2014 Antony polled more than 40 per cent of the votes — but, as said earlier, this time it’s a three-way fight. In such a scenario, if the Hindu vote was to unify and go to the BJP candidate, it is feared that the minority vote in the constituency could be split between George and Antony.

Only Ayyapan

The NDA’s candidate is K Surendran, a BJP general secretary. Surendran has been the BJP’s face in the Sabarimala protests and was sent to jail on charges of attacking a 52-year-old woman at Sabarimala. At an election speech by Surendran on March 31 at Aranmula, an important temple village in Pathanamthitta, it was evident that the Sabarimala issue was his main focus. “We focus on development and other important issues too, but today, since we were short of time, I kept the focus on Sabarimala,” Surendran told this author.

What works in the BJP candidate’s favour is that his main two rivals are facing anti-incumbency — George for her role as an MLA and Antony for his as an MP. Another important factor that’ll work in his favour is that Surendran has won the support of PC George, a six-time MLA from Poonjar, an assembly constituency which falls in the Pathanamthitta Lok Sabha constituency. PC George’s support is bound to increase the BJP’s vote share in this election.

Where Surendran’s campaign lacks is that other than the Sabarimala issue, there isn’t much to put on the plate. A general anti-BJP sentiment coupled with a perceived injustice the Centre did towards Kerala during the floods by refusing to accept aid from the United Arab Emirates (UAE) will most likely act as a headwind against Surendran. Also, if local reports are to be believed, there is infighting within the BJP and between the party and the local RSS leadership. This could dampen the NDA’s chances.

Traders’ anger

Pathanamthitta’s trader community has been hit by one blow after another. “First it was demonetisation. When the traders were trying to get back on their feet, we were hit by the GST implementation. Then came the floods which wreaked havoc across the district. More than 80 per cent traders were severely affected by the floods. A few months later, when we were preparing to welcome the 10 million-plus devotees who visit the Sabarimala temple, the protests erupted. If the Left government was insensitive in handling the protests, the BJP turned it into a communal issue,” says AJ Shajahan, district President of the Vyapari Vyavasayi Ekopana Samithi, the principal traders association in Kerala.

It’s too early to determine which way the political winds are blowing but to paraphrase the earlier mentioned lone Congress support in Panachikara, “the people are smart; they are not interested in the noise political parties make; they are waiting to see who makes sense among these candidates”.