Congress' diminishing footprint: After Karnataka and Goa, should Madhya Pradesh be worried?

After the Lok Sabha debacle, the loss of trust vote and consequent fall of the Congress-JD(S) alliance in Karnataka is an insult to the Grand Old Party’s injury.

With the loss of Karnataka, the Congress now runs the government in four states – Punjab, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh – and one Union Territory – Puducherry. On the other hand, the BJP is in power in 16 states in the country.

In the recently concluded Lok Sabha elections, the Congress won a dismal 52 seats across India, drawing a blank in 18 states and Union Territories, an indicator of the party’s decimation on the national scale.

Loss of Karnataka

Retaining Karnataka was particularly critical for the Congress as it was the only southern state in which the party was in power. Incidentally, it is also the only southern state in which BJP has significant numbers, and will soon be in power.

The Congress-JD(S) alliance, often referred to as an “opportunistic alliance” by the BJP, collapsed on July 23, completing precisely 14 months of a turbulent tenure. The trust vote moved by Chief Minister HD Kumaraswamy was defeated in the Assembly, with 99 members voting in favour of the government and 105 members voting against it.

Although the defeat put an end to a three-week-long, high-voltage power struggle triggered by a raft of resignations by rebel MLAs that had pushed the government to the brink of the collapse, tremors were felt in New Delhi.

The Congress high command came down heavily on the BJP for carrying out “one of the most heinous horse-trading” the country has ever witnessed and “morally destabilizing the government”.

Not unprecedented

In fact, Karnataka is not the only state that the BJP has practically wrested from the Grand Old Party.

In the 2017 Assembly elections, the Congress was the single largest party in Goa as well as Manipur. Yet, it was the BJP which formed the government after taking support from regional parties.

Recently, 10 of the 15 Congress MLAs in Goa broke away from the party to merge with the BJP. This increased the saffron party’s strength in the 40-member Assembly to 27.

Who...err...what next?

Keeping this pattern in mind, the focus of political observers has shifted to Madhya Pradesh, another state where the Congress has a wafer-thin majority.

In the 2018 Madhya Pradesh Assembly elections, the Congress won 114 seats as against BJP’s 109. Both the national parties were short of majority in the 230-member Assembly. Yet, the Congress staked claim to form the government with the support of two MLAs from BSP, one from SP and four Independents (taking the total to 121).

In fact, after the conclusion of the confidence motion in Karnataka, former Madhya Pradesh Chief Minister and BJP leader Shivraj Singh Chouhan told news agency ANI, "We will not cause the fall of government here (Madhya Pradesh). Congress leaders themselves have been responsible for the fall of their governments."

"There is an internal conflict in Congress, and support of BSP-SP, if something happens to that, then we can't do anything," Chouhan added.

Rebuttal and reassurance

Responding to Chouhan's remarks, Madhya Pradesh Higher Education and Sports Minister Jitu Patwari said no one can touch the Kamal Nath government.

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"Be it Gujarat, Goa or Karanataka, BJP is trying to kill democracy. The Modi government has shown that one can buy MLAs in bulk. I think it has become BJP's tendency to topple other governments. But, they will have to take seven births to topple the Kamal Nath government. That was Kumarswamy's government, but this is Kamal Nath," Patwari said.

The jolt to the Congress comes at a time when the party is struggling with a leadership crisis, after Rahul Gandhi tendered his resignation as party president. Rahul made it clear that the party should look for a new chief, but no headway has been made in finding his successor.