Analysis | Lok Sabha polls: Will Modi-Shah overturn BJP’s trend of losing as defenders?

Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) President Amit Shah are known for meticulous planning and poll-winning strategies. They are known to out-manoeuvre their political opponents and regularly bowl volleys.

This ‘Modi-Shah’ election winning machine, as they are often called by political observers, has demonstrated all of the aforementioned qualities over the last five years by winning election after election.

Their success is corroborated by the fact that their main rival — the Indian National Congress — shrunk from having governments in 13 states (along with its allies) in 2014 to three states and a Union Territory (UT) just ahead of the December 2018 assembly polls in five states. Congress was able to beat the BJP in one-on-one contests in Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan in December 2018.

The BJP, under Modi and Shah, has managed to win elections and expand its footprint. However, analysis of all Assembly election results in the country in the last five years shows that the BJP has performed better while challenging, than while defending.

Winning as challengers

In the last five years, the BJP has won numerous Assembly elections as a challenger: Andhra Pradesh (in alliance with the Telugu Desam Party), Sikkim (in alliance with Sikkim Democratic Front), Maharashtra (post-poll tie-up with Shiv Sena), Haryana, Jammu and Kashmir (post-poll tie-up with Peoples Democratic Party), Jharkhand, Assam, Uttarakhand, Uttar Pradesh, Manipur, Himachal Pradesh, Tripura and Meghalaya.

However, it did lose some elections as a challenger: Arunachal Pradesh, Odisha, Delhi, Bihar, West Bengal, Kerala, Puducherry, Tamil Nadu, Karnataka, Telangana and Mizoram.

Losing as defenders

It was unsuccessful in retaining power in four major states: Punjab (in alliance with Shiromani Akali Dal), Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan.

BJP lost Punjab in 2016 — a state it had governed along with the Shiromani Akali Dal (SAD) for two terms.

It won lesser number of seats in Goa, and nearly lost it. The saffron party also had a near-miss in PM Modi’s home state of Gujarat. In Nagaland, BJP was part of the ruling alliance with the Nagaland People’s Front (NPF). It broke the alliance in the run-up to the polls. It tied up with the second-largest party (Nationalist Democratic Progressive Party) after the polls and retained power.

The saffron party failed to retain power in three ‘Hindi heartland’ states that went to polls in November-December 2018 — Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan.

During this period, however, they retained power in Goa, Gujarat and Nagaland (post-poll alliance with NDPP; was earlier with NPF)

Besides the 2014 Lok Sabha polls, the BJP managed to win 12 out of the 24 Assembly polls in the last five years as the challengers. While this is mathematically 50:50, many of these states lacked and still lack a robust BJP organisational structure. Some of the states where the BJP failed to win as the challenger are Kerala, Tamil Nadu and West Bengal.

On the other hand, the party won four out of seven states as defenders. All of these states have BJP and its long term allies' robust presence.

As the BJP heads into the Lok Sabha polls as defenders, one question remains — will they be able to turn around the trend?