In pics | Three-child policy: China lifts cap on births in major policy shift
In 2016, China scrapped its decades-old one-child policy - initially imposed to halt a population explosion - with a two-child limit, which failed to result in a sustained surge in births as the high cost of raising children in Chinese cities deterred many couples from starting families.
China announced on Monday that each couple would be permitted to have up to three children, a major policy shift from the existing limit of two children after recent data showed a dramatic decline in births in the world's most populous country. The change was approved during a politburo meeting chaired by President Xi Jinping. (Image: AFP)
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In 2016, China scrapped its decades-old one-child policy - initially imposed to halt a population explosion - with a two-child limit, which failed to result in a sustained surge in births as the high cost of raising children in Chinese cities deterred many couples from starting families. In 1979, China imposed a policy forcing couples to have only one baby which was introduced by top leader Deng Xiaoping. The population stood at 969 million that year, a sharp increase from around 540 million in 1949. (Image: Reuters)
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The new three child policy change will come with "supportive measures, which will be conducive to improving our country's population structure, fulfilling the country's strategy of actively coping with an ageing population", the official Xinhua news agency said following a politburo meeting chaired by President Xi Jinping. Among those measures, China will lower educational costs for families, step up tax and housing support, guarantee the legal interests of working women and clamp down on "sky-high" dowries, it said, without giving specifics. It would also look to educate young people "on marriage and love". (Image: Reuters)
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China had a fertility rate of just 1.3 children per woman in 2020, recent data showed, on par with ageing societies like Japan and Italy and far short of the roughly 2.1 needed for replacement level. The census showed that the population grew at its slowest rate during the last decade since the 1950s, to 1.41 billion, fuelling concerns that China would grow old before it gets wealthy as well as criticism that it had waited too long to address declining births. (Image: Reuters)
While reaction to this move from the people is mixed. In a poll on Xinhua's Weibo account asking #AreYouReady for the three-child policy, about 29,000 of 31,000 respondents said they would “never think of it” while the remainder chose among the options: "I'm ready and very eager to do so", "it's on my agenda", or “I'm hesitating and there's lot to consider”. (Image: Reuters)
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May economist and academics had different reactions of the three child policy. Zhiwei Zhang, chief economist at Pinpoint Asset Management said, "The immediate impact is likely to be positive but small on the macro level. The long term impact depends on if the government can successfully reduce the cost for raising children – particularly education and housing.” Hao Xhou, senior economist Asia, Commerzbank, “If relaxing the birth policy was effective, the current two-child policy should have proven to be effective too. But who wants to have three kids? Young people could have two kids at most. The fundamental issue is living costs are too high and life pressures are too huge." (Image: Reuters)
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Yifei Li, Sociologist, Nyu Shanghai said, "I feel the proposal fails to recognise the reasons behind the decline in fertility ... People are held back not by the two-children limit, but by the incredibly high costs of raising children in today's China. Housing, extracurricular activities, food, trips, and everything else adds up quickly. An effective policy should have provided more social support and welfare. Raising the limit itself is unlikely to tilt anyone's calculus in a meaningful way, in my view." (Image: Reuters)
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Officials have hinted at additional incentives like tax and housing support, but history suggests they won’t be too generous. Government spending on healthcare, for example, has been consistently parsimonious. It comprised only 3 percent of GDP in 2018, World Bank data show – half the world average. The education budget has been flat around 4 percent. Hiking up these figures could make child-rearing less onerous, but Beijing has shown little inclination to do so. (Image: Reuters)
Female representation in Chinese business and government has been contracting for years, and their labour force participation has been falling steadily since 1990. In 2019, fewer than 10 percent of board directors at listed Chinese companies were female, and the country is ranked in the bottom third of the World Economic Forum’s Global Gender Gap Index. A Human Rights Watch survey in 2018 showed 19 percent of civil service jobs unapologetically listed a preference for male candidates. That officials decided to raise the birth limit instead of scrapping it speaks volumes: they plan to keep forcibly managing women’s fertility. Many Chinese hiring officers discriminate against women on the basis of their family plans to evade paid maternity leave. It’s illegal but penalties are light. Harsher forms of coercion are likely if birth rates don’t rise. The lot of working Chinese women is set to get worse. (Image: Reuters)
![While reaction to this move from the people is mixed. In a poll on Xinhua's Weibo account asking #AreYouReady for the three-child policy, about 29,000 of 31,000 respondents said they would “never think of it” while the remainder chose among the options: "I'm ready and very eager to do so", "it's on my agenda", or “I'm hesitating and there's lot to consider”. (Image: Reuters)](https://images.moneycontrol.com/static-mcnews/2021/06/000_9B67PG.jpg "While reaction to this move from the people is mixed. In a poll on Xinhua's Weibo account asking #AreYouReady for the three-child policy, about 29,000 of 31,000 respondents said they would “never think of it” while the remainder chose among the options: "I'm ready and very eager to do so", "it's on my agenda", or “I'm hesitating and there's lot to consider”. (Image: Reuters)")
![May economist and academics had different reactions of the three child policy. Zhiwei Zhang, chief economist at Pinpoint Asset Management said, "The immediate impact is likely to be positive but small on the macro level. The long term impact depends on if the government can successfully reduce the cost for raising children – particularly education and housing.” Hao Xhou, senior economist Asia, Commerzbank, “If relaxing the birth policy was effective, the current two-child policy should have proven to be effective too. But who wants to have three kids? Young people could have two kids at most. The fundamental issue is living costs are too high and life pressures are too huge." (Image: Reuters)](https://images.moneycontrol.com/static-mcnews/2021/06/RTXCTH8S.jpg "May economist and academics had different reactions of the three child policy. Zhiwei Zhang, chief economist at Pinpoint Asset Management said, "The immediate impact is likely to be positive but small on the macro level. The long term impact depends on if the government can successfully reduce the cost for raising children – particularly education and housing.” Hao Xhou, senior economist Asia, Commerzbank, “If relaxing the birth policy was effective, the current two-child policy should have proven to be effective too. But who wants to have three kids? Young people could have two kids at most. The fundamental issue is living costs are too high and life pressures are too huge." (Image: Reuters)")
![Yifei Li, Sociologist, Nyu Shanghai "I feel the proposal fails to recognise the reasons behind the decline in fertility ... People are held back not by the two-children limit, but by the incredibly high costs of raising children in today's China. Housing, extracurricular activities, food, trips, and everything else adds up quickly. An effective policy should have provided more social support and welfare. Raising the limit itself is unlikely to tilt anyone's calculus in a meaningful way, in my view." (Image: Reuters)](https://images.moneycontrol.com/static-mcnews/2021/06/RTX8NBY4.jpg "Yifei Li, Sociologist, Nyu Shanghai "I feel the proposal fails to recognise the reasons behind the decline in fertility ... People are held back not by the two-children limit, but by the incredibly high costs of raising children in today's China. Housing, extracurricular activities, food, trips, and everything else adds up quickly. An effective policy should have provided more social support and welfare. Raising the limit itself is unlikely to tilt anyone's calculus in a meaningful way, in my view." (Image: Reuters)")
