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RBI policy meet, F&O expiry to keep market volatile; Nifty may find support at 17,150: Experts

The weakness in the global markets and the upcoming key domestic data have put a sense of tentativeness among market participants

September 26, 2022 / 08:20 AM IST
Indian benchmark equity indices fell for the second straight week ended September 23 on the back weak global sentiment after the Federal Reserve hiked interest rates by 75 basis points. In the week gone by, the BSE Sensex slipped 741.87 points or 1.26 percent to close at 58,098.92, while the Nifty50 fell 203.55 points or 1.16 percent to end at 17,327.30. Let's check out what experts have to say about the week beginning today. 
Indian benchmark equity indices fell for the second straight week ended September 23 on the back weak global sentiment after the Federal Reserve hiked interest rates by 75 basis points. In the week gone by, the BSE Sensex slipped 741.87 points or 1.26 percent to close at 58,098.92, while the Nifty50 fell 203.55 points or 1.16 percent to end at 17,327.30. Let's check out what experts have to say about the week beginning today. 
Santosh Meena, Head of Research, Swastika Investmart | Global cues are expected to dominate this week as well, but RBI policy and September F&O expiry will lead to volatility in our market. US GDP and unemployment numbers will be important. Technically, Nifty witnessed closing below 50-DMA with a breakdown of a bearish head and shoulder formation that may lead to further weakness. On the downside, 17150 is an immediate support level while 200-DMA of 17000 is a sacrosanct support level. On the upside, 20-DMA of 17700 is a critical hurdle.
Santosh Meena, Head of Research, Swastika Investmart | Global cues are expected to dominate this week as well, but RBI policy and September F&O expiry will lead to volatility in our markets. The US GDP and unemployment numbers will be important to watch out for. Technically, the Nifty witnessed closing below 50-DMA with a breakdown of a bearish head-and-shoulder formation that may lead to further weakness. On the downside, 17,150 is an immediate support level, while 200-DMA of 17,000 is a sacrosanct support level. On the upside, 20-DMA of 17,700 is a critical hurdle.
Ajit Mishra, VP - Research, Religare Broking | We expect volatility to remain high as we have important events like MPC’s monetary policy review meet and monthly derivatives expiry scheduled during the week. Besides, the prevailing pressure in the global indices would continue to weigh on the sentiment. It seems like markets are finally giving in to the pressure of global indices especially the US and are likely to inch further lower ahead. We’re eyeing the 16,900-17,100 zone to act as a support while the 17,550-17,750 zone would act as a strong hurdle in case of any rebound. Most sectors are expected to trade in tandem with the benchmark however the recent buying interest in the defensive pack viz. FMCG and selectively in pharma may continue. Participants should align their positions accordingly and maintain positions on both sides.
Ajit Mishra, VP - Research, Religare Broking | We expect volatility to remain high as we have important events like MPC’s monetary policy review meet and monthly derivatives expiry scheduled during the week. Besides, the prevailing pressure in the global indices would continue to weigh on the sentiment. It seems like markets are finally giving in to the pressure of global indices, especially in the US, and are likely to inch further lower ahead. We’re eyeing the 16,900-17,100 zone to act as a support while the 17,550-17,750 zone would act as a strong hurdle in case of any rebound. 
Osho Krishan, Sr. Analyst - Technical & Derivative Research, Angel One | The weakness in the global markets and the upcoming key domestic data have put a sense of tentativeness among the market participants. As we have witnessed a decisive breach below the major support zone in Nifty, one should not rule out the possibility of it testing the immediate swing low of 17150 odd zone, while the sacrosanct support lies at the psychological mark of 17000. On the flip side, a series of resistances could be seen starting from 17500 to 17800 in the comparable period.
Osho Krishan, Sr. Analyst - Technical & Derivative Research, Angel One | The weakness in the global markets and the upcoming key domestic data have put a sense of tentativeness among the market participants. As we have witnessed a decisive breach below the major support zone in the Nifty, one should not rule out the possibility of it testing the immediate swing low of 17,150-odd zone, while the sacrosanct support lies at the psychological mark of 17,000. On the flip side, a series of resistances could be seen starting from 17,500 to 17,800 in the comparable period.
Amol Athawale, Deputy Vice President - Technical Research, Kotak Securities | For positional traders 17500-17600 levels could act as a crucial resistance zone. On the flip side, the 50-day SMA or 17250 would be the important support level. If the index closes below the 50-day SMA, it could retest the level of 17150 and could retreat further till the 200-day SMA or 17000.
Amol Athawale, Deputy Vice President - Technical Research, Kotak Securities | For positional traders 17,500-17,600 levels could act as a crucial resistance zone. On the flip side, the 50-day SMA or 17,250 would be the important support level. If the index closes below the 50-day SMA, it could retest the level of 17,150 and could retreat further till the 200-day SMA or 17,000.
Vinod Nair, Head of Research at Geojit Financial services | For the week ahead, investors will keenly watch the outcome of the RBI monetary policy on September 30th. There is a consensus that a 50bps rate hike will help strengthen INR. Benign oil prices and strong local demand may help the RBI to maintain the balance between growth and inflation. We expect the market direction will be led by global developments and FIIs' action. On the valuation front, India is the most expensive stock market in the world today. Therefore, investors are advised to wait and watch until the dust settles.
Vinod Nair, Head of Research at Geojit Financial services | For the week ahead, investors will keenly watch the outcome of the RBI monetary policy on September 30. There is a consensus that a 50bps rate hike will help strengthen INR. Benign oil prices and strong local demand may help the RBI to maintain the balance between growth and inflation. We expect the market direction will be led by global developments and FIIs' action. On the valuation front, India is the most expensive stock market in the world today. Therefore, investors are advised to wait and watch until the dust settles.
Palak Kothari, Senior Technical Analyst at Choice Broking | On the technical front, the Nifty has been trading with Lower Highs & Lower Low formation for the last 4 trading sessions on a daily basis which points out the weakness in the counter for an upcoming session. Furthermore, the Nifty formed a bearish candle on a daily chart as well as trading below 21 DMA which adds bearishness to the prices. Nifty has given a breakdown of the horizontal line and given closing below the same which adds bearishness to the prices. The support for Nifty has shifted around 17150 levels while on the upside 17700 may act as an immediate hurdle.
Palak Kothari, Senior Technical Analyst at Choice Broking | On the technical front, the Nifty has been trading with Lower High and Lower Low formation for the last four trading sessions on a daily basis. This points out the weakness in the counter for an upcoming session. The Nifty formed a bearish candle on the daily chart as well as trading below the 21 DMA which adds bearishness to the prices. The Nifty has given a breakdown of the horizontal line and given closing below the same which adds bearishness to the prices. The support for the Nifty has shifted around 17,150 levels while on the upside 17,700 may act as an immediate hurdle.
Rakesh Patil
first published: Sep 26, 2022 08:20 am