Uttar Pradesh Results 2022 | How BJP checkmated SP through its deft campaign strategy

Bharatiya Janata Party workers put coloured powder on a photograph of incumbent chief minister Yogi Adityanath while celebrating early leads for the party as election officials count votes after Uttar Pradesh state elections in Lucknow. (Image: AP)

The all-important election results of Uttar Pradesh, touted as semi-finals to the general elections of 2024, have clearly swung in favour of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP).

The Yogi Adityanath-led BJP is all set to retain power with a thumping majority breaking a decades’ old trend.

The BJP is leading in more than 270 seats with a vote share of 42.5 percent. The Akhilesh Yadav-led Samajwadi Party (SP) is leading on 125 seats with a 31.6 percent vote share. Mayawati’s Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) has been decimated as it has been reduced to the lower single digits with about 12.8 percent vote share.

The Congress, despite an enthusiastic campaign by Priyanka Gandhi Vadra, has recorded its worst performance and could win two seats with a vote share of 2.5 percent.

The victory despite concerns around unemployment, price rise, and agricultural distress is testimony of Adityanath’s governance track record and popularity.

It also exhibits the evolution of BJP’s strategy from Hindutva to social engineering to a focus on welfare measures. It has now developed a strong and loyal vote base which is difficult to emulate, and beat till it continues to deliver on its promises.

The UP elections, a foregone conclusion till three months ago, became a tight battle as Yadav stitched formidable alliances with smaller parties like the RLD in Western UP and the SBSP/Apna Dal (K) in Eastern UP. Reports also suggested huge anti-incumbency against sitting BJP MLAs.

The BJP was facing the Jat community’s ire in Western UP, and SP employed a Mandal 2.O strategy in Eastern UP (which was a comparatively weaker flank of the BJP even in 2017) threatening to make a dent in saffron party’s prospects.

His rallies drew huge crowds attracting youth and his core vote base of Muslims-Yadavs.

The BJP was quick to realise the challenge mounted, and employed a phase-wise strategy to counter Yadav.

In phase one and two, the BJP used a counter-consolidation strategy against the JAM (Jat-Ahir-Muslim) to neutralise the impact as the population of these three groups ranged from 25 percent to more than 50 percent in some districts.

In phase three where the SP’s catchment vote was missing, the BJP played the laabharthi card. In phase four in central UP which houses urban/semi urban areas such as Lucknow, Pilibhit, Kheri and Unnao, the BJP also introduced the nationalism angle seizing the Ahmedabad blast order of the high court.

In phase five, when the polling moved to Ayodhya, the Ram Lalla land strategy centred on Hindutva with the BJP taking credit for the construction of the Ram temple. The song ‘Jo Ram ko laaye hain, hum unko laayein hain’ was popular among the people.

In phase six and seven, the SP threatened to break into the social engineering crafted by the BJP in 2017 comprising of the non-Yadav OBC and non-Jatavs. Here the BJP played up its improved law and order record to woo the woman voters, and instilled a fear of return of lawlessness if the SP came to power. As turnout figures show women turned up more and outnumbered men in phase six by 11 percent.

In both the phases the BJP also highlighted Modi’s OBC status, how he’s the tallest and most-respected leader in India, and how the OBCs have got higher representation in the Cabinet and Parliament under the BJP regime.

The party also created targeted strategy and messaging for various voting blocks. For the middle/rich and aspiration class it pitched its development track record. For the poor and downtrodden/migrant labour it pitched its free ration scheme. For the women, it pitched its improved law and order record. For its committed hardcore Hindutva voter, the BJP promised to keep in check the minority population.

On top of it, the BJP’s welfare measures appealed to the poor cutting across caste and religious lines. It has not only created a loyal beneficiary vote bank but also created an aspirational vote block (left out till now but hopeful of getting a dream house/gas connection/Kisan Nidhi).

The Opposition has been following the BJP’s moves as it has been driving the agenda. In 2017, when the Opposition thought the BJP will fight polls on Hindutva, it beat them in their own game of caste by denting the OBC and the Schedule Caste vote bank of the SP and the BSP.

When the SP created a strategy to weaken the BJP’s caste coalition in 2022, the party moved to welfare politics to negate such moves, and, thus, reduce the influence of caste-wise voting.