Strategic Autonomy Needs Influence: Neutrality without engagement is isolation; India’s moment to lead in the Middle East is now

India would then be reduced to a bystander in a region where its core interests are most at stake.

By Hatem M. Bamehriz 

For more than a century, the Middle East has been the stage where Western powers projected influence, redrew maps, and secured their interests. From the Sykes–Picot Agreement to Cold War alliances and oil-driven military interventions, the West shaped outcomes, often with little regard for local aspirations. The result was a legacy of artificial borders, brittle states, and unresolved grievances.

That era is now in decline. The U.S. is overstretched and increasingly inward-looking. Europe is divided, consumed by Ukraine and its own economic insecurities. The Gaza war has further eroded Western credibility, exposing double standards that have alienated Arab public opinion. Washington’s allies in the Gulf and North Africa are quietly hedging, recognizing that U.S. security guarantees are no longer ironclad.

Geopolitical vacuum is drawing in new players

This geopolitical fatigue has created a vacuum. Allowing new players to step-in, China, Russia, and Türkiye-each bringing a different and distinctive angle, a mix of trade, arms, ideology, and mediation. While Moscow leverages military partnerships in Syria and Libya, Beijing courts Gulf wealth through infrastructure and technology deals. Ankara uses cultural and religious affinities to project soft and hard power alike. Yet, while analysts obsess over these moves, a crucial actor is often overlooked: India.

India’s big economic interest in the Middle East

For India, the Middle East is not a distant arena-it is the neighborhood. Its security, prosperity, and global standing are deeply tied to what happens west of the Arabian Sea. Over 60% of India’s crude oil and LNG imports originate in the Gulf. No diversification strategy can replace this dependency in the near term. Annual India-GCC trade already exceeds $150 billion, and the potential in renewable energy, infrastructure, and technology is vast. Furthermore, nearly nine million Indians live and work in Gulf states, sending billions in remittances annually. They are both an economic cushion and a soft-power asset. Additionally, the Arabian Sea, Red Sea, and Suez Canal are not just trade routes; they are India’s lifelines to Europe and Africa. Any disruption-whether from piracy, terrorism, or conflict—directly threatens India’s economic arteries.

These are not abstract concerns. When Houthi forces in Yemen launched attacks on shipping in the Red Sea, Indian, like other shipping firms, rerouted vessels, driving up costs. When political tensions spike in the region, energy prices in Delhi surge. When Gulf economies boom, Indian workers benefit; when they slow, remittances withers. The region’s volatility is India’s volatility.

Economic interests in the Gulf are changing, giving India opportunities

What makes the current moment exceptional is not just the West’s apparent retraction, but the Middle East’s own transformation. Gulf states, particularly Saudi Arabia and the UAE, are racing to diversify their economies away from oil, pouring billions into infrastructure, technology, green energy, services and culture. They are searching for stable partners who can provide scale, talent, and reliability.

Unlike the West, India does not come with the baggage of colonialism, regime change, or political conditionality. Unlike China, it does not raise fears of debt traps. Unlike Russia, it is not viewed solely through the prism of arms and military deals. Unlike Türkiye, suspected of supporting a certain Islamic ideological agenda. India’s cultural heritage resonates in the region without being overbearing; its democratic pluralism makes it an appealing partner in a region wary of ideological imposition.

Crucially, Gulf investment flows are pursuing new unswerving partnerships. Billions of dollars are being funneled into mega projects in infrastructure, digital platforms, tourism, services, and renewable energy. This is not just transactional capital; it is a hedge. Gulf leaders watched how erratic U.S. policies under President Trump reshaped India–U.S. relations overnight. They recognize that Western partnerships come with volatility, sudden political swings and strings. By contrast, India offers proximity, stability, and long-term growth.

This dynamic makes India not just a stable partner and beneficiary of Gulf investment but a co-shaper of the region’s economic future. The more Gulf capital is anchored in India, the deeper their mutual dependence-and the greater India’s leverage in shaping outcomes in the Middle East.

Passivity is not a sound strategic option 

Yet, India’s foreign policy instincts have traditionally been cautious. Non-alignment and strategic autonomy served it well during the Cold War, insulating it from superpower entanglements. But in today’s Middle East, caution risks irrelevance.

If India remains passive, others will set the terms; Beijing will define the digital infrastructure, telecom, and energy investment landscape. Moscow will exploit arms sales and security partnerships to entrench influence. Ankara will continue to expand its ideological and cultural reach.

India would then be reduced to a bystander in a region where its core interests are most at stake. Demonstrating that strategic autonomy without influence becomes strategic isolation.

India does not need to mimic the West’s military-heavy path, nor China’s transactional deals. Its strength lies in offering a credible, balanced, and multifaceted partnership. A coherent strategy should rest on four pillars:

1. Strategic Balancing; India must deepen ties with the GCC while engaging Iran and Israel constructively. This requires careful diplomacy—avoiding zero-sum choices and positioning India as a bridge across divides. Few countries are better placed to host regional dialogues or facilitate trade corridors that span rivalries.

2. Economic Expansion; beyond oil, India should leverage its strengths in manufacturing, pharmaceuticals, and digital services to forge joint ventures with Gulf partners. Long-term infrastructure projects—ports, railways, renewable energy hubs—can bind the two regions together. Importantly, India must market itself as the preferred destination for Gulf sovereign wealth funds seeking high returns without Western conditionality or the risk of politically driven sanctions.

3. Security Presence; with the increased security challenges in the region, the protection of shipping lanes in the Arabian Sea and Red Sea cannot be outsourced. India’s navy should expand patrols, anti-piracy missions, and joint exercises with Gulf partners. A visible security role will not only safeguard trade but also project India as a reliable security partner, without the baggage of interventionism.

4. Soft-Power Diplomacy; none of India’s rivals enjoys the cultural intimacy with the region as India does. India’s civilizational links to the Middle East stretch back centuries, through trade, migration, and cultural exchange. Offering scholarships for GCC students in much needed fields, such as engineering, IT, and medicine can create lasting goodwill. Bollywood, sports, joint cultural events, etc. remain powerful tools of cultural diplomacy. India should package these not as cultural exports, but as bridges of trust that outlast transactional politics.

What is unfolding in the Middle East is part of a broader global shift toward multipolarity. The unipolar moment of U.S. dominance is gradually declining; no single power will fill the vacuum. Instead, multiple actors like China, Russia, Türkiye, Europe, and potentially India will shape overlapping spheres of influence.

For India, this is both an opportunity and a test. It can either remain a secondary player, reacting to others’ initiatives, or it can seize the moment to establish itself as a principal shaper of regional order. The tools are within reach: economic weight, cultural resonance, diaspora networks, and trusted diplomatic credibility.

There’s not a moment to lose

However, time is of an essence. The Middle East is moving fast-Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030, the UAE’s diversification push, and Qatar’s aspiring economic plans are reshaping the region’s economic DNA. China is embedding itself through infrastructure and technology deals. Russia is entrenching militarily. If India does not step up now, the space for meaningful influence may narrow.

History and experience tell us that India’s foreign policy often cite “strategic autonomy” as the country’s guiding principle. Autonomy has its merits, but autonomy without influence is little more than self-imposed isolation, a recipe to foster marginalization and missing-out on providing leadership to a region embarking on new prophecy and adopting diverse strategies.

The Middle East offers India a historic stage: a chance to turn economic strength, diplomatic credibility, and cultural capital into genuine regional leadership. This does not mean dominance; it means partnership, balance, and credibility at a time when others are overreaching or retreating.

The question is no longer whether India can play this role. It is whether New Delhi has the vision and political will to seize the opportunity before the train leaves the station.

(Hatem M. Bamehriz is director of the speaker’s office, Yemeni House of Representatives. He is a Middle East and Horn of Africa political expert and has worked on variety of programs in Yemen, Somalia, Afghanistan, Sudan, for 28 years focusing on the areas of political stability, peacebuilding, governance and democracy.)

Views are personal and do not represent the stand of this publication.