Pakistan stares down the barrel of a gun, yet again

The hijacking of a train is part of a series of big ticket attacks witnessed over the last two months.

In one of the boldest terror attacks in Pakistan, militants of the Baloch Liberation Army (BLA) on the morning of March 11 hijacked the Jaffar Express- a Quetta-Peshawar passenger train- while it was traversing through the rugged mountains of Balochistan. The militants blasted train tracks with improvised explosive devices, killed three Frontier Corps personnel deployed at a picket nearby and quickly took over 440 passengers hostage.

In no time, claiming the attack, pro-BLA social media accounts started issuing updates about their offensive and the counter-offensive by Pakistan forces. The Pakistani state had to mobilise the army, air force and the paramilitary resources and battle for about 36 hours to end the siege and rescue passengers.

Eyewitnesses on the train have reported that militants had segregated civilians and security personnel by checking their identity cards. The militants claimed they released many passengers, including women and children, even before a counter-offensive began. Pakistan’s media has reported over 100 casualties, including 20-30 fatalities, while the BLA propaganda has given different account of casualties of security personnel who were their main targets. It is reported by media that over 20 security personnel were taken hostage by BLA militants and removed from the site before the siege ended. Such details can seldom be verified quickly in Pakistan, as the security apparatus tries to hide the exact figures after such big attacks, in order to maintain its public image.

Pakistan’s seen a series of attacks over two months

The hijacking of a train is part of a series of big ticket attacks witnessed over the last two months. The media has estimated that in the first half of March, Pakistan forces have suffered over 200 casualties, including 60 fatalities across Balochistan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa provinces. Pakistan seems to be trying the old methods of containing violence and failing yet again. Its spillover effect may also be felt across the region.

The violence in Pakistan is taking place on a daily basis. In the five days since the train hijacking, over a dozen attacks have been mounted across Balochistan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa resulting in dozens of casualties to security personnel and civilians. The security apparatus has responded in its familiar style, blaming Afghanistan and India for supporting militancy, projecting an active role of ‘handlers’ based in Afghanistan and glorifying itself for the ‘heroic’ rescue and counter-offensive operations.

Still presenting itself as counter-terrorism partner

Interestingly, Pakistan security apparatus continues to offer itself as a useful and credible ally for counter-terrorism cooperation in the region, particularly to the US. On March 2, a so-called Islamic State of Iraq and Syria -Khorasan operative, Sharifullah, was caught and handed over to the US. So far, the exact nature of co-operation for this operation between the two sides is not clear. However, Sharifullah was said to be part of the planning team for the Abbe Gate suicide attack at the Hamid Karzai Kabul airport on August 26, 2021 during a chaotic withdrawal of US troops from Afghanistan. Over 13 US servicemen and 170 Afghan civilians were killed in the attack.

On March 7, issuing a strict travel advisory to its citizens against any travel to Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan provinces, an US advisory stressed that the US had ‘limited ability to provide services to US citizens in these areas and most areas outside of Islamabad, Lahore, and Karachi’. The advisory perhaps captured a realistic picture of the security situation in Pakistan even before the train hijacking.

Polity’s subservience to the army is a problem

The Baloch Liberation Army and other Baloch groups have been continually targeting security personnel, bases and patrols as they view security forces of Pakistan as oppressors of Baloch people. The forced disappearances of thousands of young Baloch men over the past few decades, blamed on Pakistan security agencies, have not been addressed by the State. The issue continues to get aggravated with continued ‘muscular’ handling of Baloch protests by the army that remains at the forefront of making and implementing national security policies. Despite having elected state and federal governments, the polity continues to remain subservient to the army brass. The socio-economic grievances of people in both the provinces remain unaddressed.

In a strategic move, the Baloch groups have also made China a target of their attacks and propaganda. It is well known that the China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) is a flagship project under the Belt and Road Initiative of China. The CPEC passes through the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan provinces and lands at the Gwadar port. The Baloch militants have repeatedly warned China to withdraw from the Baloch land. It appears to be aimed at putting pressure on China to exert pressure on Pakistan to amicably settle the Balochistan issue for CPEC to succeed.

Security approach lacks nuance

Unfortunately, the Pakistan security establishment has not appreciated the difference between counter-insurgency and counter-terrorism strategies. Both shades of violence require different handling of such threats and actors that perpetrate them. However, the overarching role of the army and its efforts to continue to maintain that role has eroded institutions that could perhaps address grievances that lie at the heart of emergence of such destructive networks. Tragically, the police and paramilitary forces are also facing the brunt of faulty policies and facing dire threats across the two provinces. This has further eroded local governance in whatever form it exists in Pakistan.

The army media wing, the Inter Services Public Relations, at a press conference, has directly blamed Afghanistan and India for this attack, as they have done for many past big attacks. By doing so, the army is trying to deflect domestic attention from its own failures. Repeated border skirmishes with Taliban, frequent closing of Af-Pak border crossings leading to disruption of trade with Afghanistan, and frequent targeted assassinations in both countries have created a very tense situation in the region. The aggressive posturing towards neighbours, while failing to render justice to its own population, is likely to aggravate threats to Pakistan and the region. The US travel warning is one such example of how such tensions can even affect the interests of global community in the region.