Pakistan Prime Minister Imran Khan’s Russia visit is a puzzling non-event

Pakistan Prime Minister Imran Khan

It should have been the visit to go down in history books; and a visit that should have earned him brownie points to boost a sagging political career. However, Pakistan Prime Minister Imran Khan’s Moscow visit has nothing at all to show, no joint statement, no State banquet, and no press conference. Look carefully, and Khan appears to be a marked politician for his attempts to have a ‘normal’ conversation with Russian President Vladimir Putin — a world leader who is a foe to many democracies around the world. The world is not happy, and apparently neither is Pakistan’s foreign ministry. It was never so silent in years.

Puzzling Visit

That the shrewd Pakistani Foreign Minister, Shah Mahmood Qureshi, allowed the visit to go ahead at a time of severe tension is puzzling. True, it was played up as the first such visit in 23 years, but the Pakistani statement prior to the visit certainly did not indicate any large deliverables. It merely noted a ‘review’ of energy co-operation, and ‘exchange of views’ on Afghanistan, and Islamophobia.

The visit by Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov in April seemed to set the stage for some mutual interests. The fact that Lavrov chose, very unusually, to twin the visit with his Delhi visit a day earlier would have pleased Islamabad considerably. The visit was timed just before the withdrawal of US troops from Afghanistan in May, and when Russia was all for recognising the Taliban; there was clearly joint interests.

However, in his Moscow visit, Khan would have had little to show for Pakistan’s ‘victory’ in Afghanistan. True, there are ISI officers and men all over the present administration, but that doesn’t seem to have helped in reducing border tensions between the two which continues. Neither is there any indication that the Taliban had put any restraint on terrorists operating from its territory. Essentially, there was no ‘breakthrough’ to discuss, and, therefore, no deliverable.

It’s All Gas

The energy issue is even more puzzling. In 2015, it was announced that Russia would invest $14 billion in Pakistan’s energy sector with Gazprom leading the charge. That was to include around $10 billion in an offshore gas pipeline project, $2.5 billion in the North-South pipeline project from Karachi to Kasur in Punjab (Pakistan), and the remaining on building underground storages in Pakistan. This was also meant to power up the China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) that was making considerable headway. By 2020, Gazprom was out of the equation due to US sanctions on it, to be replaced with the special purpose vehicle consisting of the Eurasian Pipeline Consortium, steel pipe maker TMK (Trubnaya Metallurgicheskaya Kmpny), and an operational services centre run by the Russian energy ministry.

So far nothing at all has come of this project, nor was it expected to during the visit, other than a vague commitment. So again, there was no deliverable.

The Islamophobia ‘Deliverable’

That Russia did see Pakistan as useful was apparent in Putin’s coming down heavily against French cartoons depicting Prophet Mohammad, and denounced it as violation of religious freedoms, during his annual press conference in December. That statement was greeted enthusiastically by Khan, for whom ‘Islamophobia’ has been a favourite hobby horse in presenting himself as a leader of the Islamic world.

In normal times, Khan’s Moscow visit would have produced more statements such as these. But the times are not normal. Though it is absurd to suggest that Putin deliberately chose to embarrass Khan, by launching the attack during his visit, there is no doubt that the State visit would have been welcome to a President who knew he was going to be virtually isolated. Surely, a deft Pakistan Foreign ministry could have delayed the visit knowing matters were heating up?

The United States State Department spokesperson made it clear that they were ‘aware’ of the visit, and clearly linking it with a future ‘prosperous’ Pakistan, which means US aid, observed that “every country around the world should make that point clearly in unambiguous language in their engagements with the Russian Federation”. That was identical to the call to China to use its influence to restrain Russia.

Though Khan in his statement dutifully ‘regretted’ the conflict, his 'excitement' at the visit, and the reference of his Russian hosts to the earlier visit of President of Azerbaijan Ilhan Aliyev, seemed to indicate that the public relations value of the visits was well-appreciated by Moscow at least.

It may be that Washington sees it as Khan delivering on his ‘influence’ in Moscow. After all, China’s President Xi Jinping has since telephoned his Russian counterpart; so Islamabad probably sees itself as part of a cosy triumvirate. Khan has been seeing himself as a ‘bridge’ between China and the US. But as can be seen, Russia has no real stake with Pakistan, nor is it likely to pay much attention to what Pakistan wants, or doesn’t want, particularly when it is aware that India is has far more important.

The question, however, is still open as to why Khan risked his position so gravely, when simply cancelling the visit would have been the better bet. The answer to that could be that someone asked him to, most likely the iron brother. In other words, Pakistan is being pulled into an emerging ‘bloc’ that could cause Pakistan far more damage than anything yet. That could also explain the silence since the visit.

Tara Kartha is Distinguished Fellow, Institute of Peace and Conflict Studies, New Delhi. 

Views are personal and do not represent the stand of this publication.