Mahayuti’s unexpected scale of victory puts RSS in the driver’s seat within the Sangh Parivar

The RSS has proved through the outcomes in Haryana and Maharashtra that they can significantly impact BJP’s fortunes.

The results of 2024 Maharashtra Assembly elections have taken many by surprise and left quite a few shell-shocked. Among the surprised are also those from the victorious Mahayuti camp as nobody had predicted or even thought of such a huge landslide for the ruling alliance comprising Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), Shiv Sena (Shinde) and Nationalist Congress Party (Ajit Pawar). While most are now attributing it to the populist Ladki Bahin (beloved sister) scheme and active participation of BJP’s parent organisation Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS), even the two together do not convincingly explain the huge total of 230, which is a record in Maharashtra’s electoral history.

Why it also surprised many is because it came close on the heels of the Lok Sabha elections in April-May this year, where Mahayuti bagged just 17 seats against its 2019 tally of 41. MVA won 31 seats.

How could the situation have taken a turn to the other extreme is the question in many minds.

Was Ladki Bahin the game changer?

While there is no doubt about Ladki Bahin having the potential to salvage Mahayuti’s position after the LS polls, was it really so overwhelming as to surprise even its promoters? Of course, the Mahayuti leaders are not saying it in so many words but the cautious optimism they were exhibiting about the possible outcome did suggest that they never expected it to be so overwhelming. Perhaps the increase of 2.5 percent in women voting was also an indicator of more women choosing Mahayuti as their option.

What is surprising about the Ladki Bahin effect is the uniform returns it fetched for Mahayuti across all regions. It was surprising also because Mahayuti’s gains appear to have been identical in urban and rural areas, which generally show differing trends due to different concerns of voters. Vidarbha, for example, was supposed to be a happy hunting ground for MVA because of the huge farmer resentment due to the crippling slump in the prices of soyabean and cotton. Instead, it gave Mahayuti its best tally of 47 out of 62 seats.

The question, therefore, is: did the price rise, unemployment and agrarian distress not temper the Ladki Bahin effect to some extent? If not, why? Because the three together were pinching people, particularly the rural folk. The adverse impact of the combined effect of these three factors was more than the support provided by Ladki Bahin.

Advocates of Ladki Bahin being the game changer are citing simple math. Considering even 1 crore of the 2.20 crore women beneficiaries voted for Mahayuti, its victory gets amply explained. But to reach this conclusion, we need to know whether all those women had voted for the Mahayuti constituents earlier, or and were an entirely a new addition to its  support base.

Another argument about Ladki Bahin is that it is for the first time that the women in the family received a substantial amount in their accounts, something which they could call their own. That’s not entirely true. Poor women in both urban and rural areas do work as maids or farm labourers, earning their own income.

Clearly, while Ladki Bahin did create positive vibes for Mahayuti, it is hard to believe that it overshadowed all the pressing concerns of people to tilt the scales so heavily in Mahayuti’s favour.

Was it ideology that made the differnce?

The other factor cited to have worked in Mahayuti’s favour was the ‘massive’ groundwork done by Sangh Parivar
affiliates of the BJP. That again is true only of urban areas and is insufficient to explain the parity of Mahayuti’s success there with the one in rural parts.

If we interpret the Maharashtra results only from the welfare scheme point of view, then the question that arises is what happened to the ideological narratives of the two sides? Did Hindutva make any impact? If yes, is it that even sections of Dalits and tribals, who moved away from Mahayuti during the LS polls shifted their position in the Assembly elections because their anxieties about the Constitution were addressed?

It is noteworthy here that the BJP has received 26.77 percent of votes, which is marginally less than the maximum 27.81 percent that it had fetched in 2014 but can still be considered an upswing because unlike in 2014 when it had fought independently on all the seats, this time it had fought in only 148 sets. It would be interesting to decode if this rise was all due to Ladki Bahin or the rising influence of its Hindutva ideology.

RSS strengthen its position within Sangh Parivar

But what are the main takeaways of the Maharashtra election? The pathetic condition of Uddhav Thackeray’s Shiv Sena and Sharad Pawar’s NCP along with Congress leaves a big question mark on the future of at least the first two since Congress is a pan-India party unlike them. Shinde Sena’s and Ajit Pawar’s successes have virtually put an end to the debate as to which are the real factions.

Of course, the Congress, too, is down in the dumps and will have to begin from scratch for all future battles.

But the biggest takeaway perhaps is that the RSS contribution to BJP’s success may trigger the process of the duo of Narendra Modi and Amit Shah losing their pride of place in the BJP’s pantheon.

The RSS has once again proved, after the LS disappointment, through the outcomes in Haryana and Maharashtra that they can significantly impact BJP’s fortunes. Modi’s self-assumed importance is not be-all and end-all for BJP. The tug-of-war between Modi and RSS appears to have been well and truly settled in the latter's favour. This, in itself, will also trigger a process of change in the leadership at top with 2029 in mind and the star of BJP’s performance in Maharashtra and possibly the CM-designate, Devendra Fadnavis, could well be the RSS’ choice for the top job then.