Maharashtra | For Chief Minister Eknath Shinde, it’s a bumpy road ahead

Eknath Shinde

The battle for the reins of Shiv Sena moves to the courts and the streets of Maharashtra after Eknath Shinde won the trust vote in the Assembly on July 4. Shinde who has risen up the ranks has his task cut out as he faces severe challenges on the political, social, and economic fronts.

A legal battle awaits Shinde and the MLAs supporting him in the Supreme Court. The disqualification proceedings against 16 MLAs, and the fight for the rightful leader of Shiv Sena’s legislative party will be heard in the court from July 11. Shinde’s continuance as Chief Minister hinges on this ruling. As leader of the party in the assembly is elected and not selected, he seems to be a strong footing in the legal case.

The situation is similar to corporate structures where parent company (Shiv Sena) and subsidiary (Sena legislative party) are two separate entities having distinct leadership and boards.

The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), by supporting Shinde as Chief Minister, who has less than half the number of MLAs vis-a-vis the saffron party in the Maharashtra assembly, is not doing Shinde a favour. Shinde will be under immense pressure by the BJP to poach Shiv Sena MPs, MLCs, corporators, office bearers and cadre, to emerge as the dominant group in the regional party. In doing so, the BJP will be aiming to side line Thackeray clan so that they pose no challenge in the future.

Shinde’s next big challenge is to deliver the Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation to the BJP which has been under the Shiv Sena’s control for more than three decades. While the Thackerays enjoy a pan-Mumbai support, Shinde’s influence is limited to Thane. Dislodging the Thackerays from BMC is not going to be easy for Shinde because the Thackerays enjoy an emotional connect with Shiv Sainiks.

In many ways, the first seeds of discontent have been sown in the alliance with the BJP making Shinde the Chief Minister. The other 39 MLAs from the Shiv Sena who have expressed support to Shinde and played an instrumental part in bringing down the Uddhav Thackeray government will now demand their pound of flesh—especially after Shinde has bargained a sweet deal for himself. They would demand plump ministries and portfolios, and it will be an increasingly difficult task for Shinde to keep his flock together. Instability could be the order of the day, and that could be a reason why Devendra Fadnavis was hesitant to be a part of the Shinde Cabinet.

These ‘rebel’ MLAs would want to keep their Shiv Sena identity, else they could have chosen the easy route of merging with the BJP as they had the required two-third majority. This puts additional pressure on Shinde to stake claim on the Shiv Sena’s electoral symbol. Winning the party symbol is crucial for Shinde because in the event of a loss, the ‘rebel’ MLAs could be forced to move to the BJP.

Shinde also needs to be on guard as the BJP could pull the plug anytime it chooses after its objectives are met. We have seen that unnatural arrangements like these where the junior partner leads the government does not last long, as was the case in the Congress-JD(S) alliance in Karnataka.

The BJP will be hoping that Shinde will deliver the Marathi manoos votes to the party, and this will complement its Gujarati and Uttar Bharatiya vote bank in Maharashtra. Shinde, a Maratha, will also have to emerge as the strongest face in this influential community, dislodging Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) leader Sharad Pawar. The tricky issue of Maratha reservation is pending approval, and expectations that it will be approved, now that both the Centre and the state have an NDA government, will rise.

Shinde will have to focus on development, on speeding up delayed project, among other things. The state economy is limping back after the pandemic impacted growth in the last two years. However, farmers’ suicides, agriculture distress, and loan waiver could become pressure points for the new government.

Maharashtra is witnessing fresh COID-19 outbreak, and Shinde cannot drop the ball on this. Comparisons are bound to be made with Uddhav Thackeray who is credited with handling the crisis well.

Views are personal and do not represent the stand of this publication.