Jammu in jihadist crosshairs

Breaking News LIVE: Major terror attack on Army picket in remote village of Rajouri thwarted

Unlike financial analysts who start ringing alarm bells the moment they see corporate earnings either weaken or not in line with expectations in any quarter, security analysts (at least at the policy making level) seem to wait until the problem can no longer be explained away. Until then they prefer to quote statistics to convince everyone that everything is under control.

From around 2021 there have been a series of terrorist strikes in this region, not just against civilians but also against security forces. And yet, these attacks were not considered as indicative of the shift in the area of operation from Kashmir valley to Jammu. It is only after the recent spate of ambushes of security force convoys by terrorists in the Jammu region that the security establishment has woken up to the growing presence and actions of jihadist terrorists south of Pir Panjal in J&K.

Terrain hopping to avoid pressure

The increase in terrorist actions in Jammu is not surprising. There was enormous security pressure in the Kashmir Valley. The shelf life of terrorists had reduced drastically, except for the odd killing of an unarmed civilian or off-duty security force official by the part-time, ‘hybrid’ terrorists active in Kashmir.

It was therefore natural for terrorists, particularly the foreign (read Pakistani) terrorists to shift operations to Jammu where the terrain and geography provided them some cover, as well as easier ingress and egress routes. The fact that for close to two decades the Jammu region had been cleansed of terrorists also helped. There was just not the same laser focus on terrorism in the Jammu division that was there in Kashmir division. From around 2020, security forces had been thinned in the region and redeployed on other more active fronts. This has created some gaps in the security grid that could be exploited by the terrorists.

Jammu gets reinforcements

The security establishment is now once again beefing up troops in the region to hunt down the terrorists. But this could prove to be a bit of a long haul, especially if over the last three years or so the terrorists have re-established their networks of support and sustenance. As things stand, the intelligence grid of the security forces appears to be rusted. This will need to be made more robust for operations to become more effective. The engagement of security forces with locals is critical. But this too will take some doing because it will mean navigating through political grievances - people of the region feel they have been ignored and neglected - and social/communal tensions that have erupted in the last few years.

Intelligence vacuum but…

For now, there is no solid information or intelligence on the strength of terrorists active in the region. What is known is that these are not the garden variety hybrid terrorist that is common in Kashmir. If the terror attacks in Jammu are anything to go by, these are highly trained, disciplined, battle hardened terrorists, well versed in laying ambushes, adept in hit-and-run attacks, trained to use the terrain to their advantage to hide and strike.

Signs point to Pakistan Army

All these manifest attributes suggest that these are probably serving or recent retirees of Pakistan army (perhaps Special Services Group commandos), or predominantly Punjabi and some Pashtun Taliban aligned to Pakistan Army with experience of having waged jihad in Afghanistan.

It still is not clear if they are surviving off the land or receiving support in the form of supplies and information - ideological, religious, political, or simply coerced - from locals. Given the areas in which attacks have taken place - from Poonch and Rajauri to Reasi, Kathua and Doda - it is unlikely if it is the same group. There are some estimates that 40-50 terrorists might be active, operating in groups of four-to-five. But that there could be more is not something that can be ruled out.

From whatever is available in the public domain, it is also not clear if these terrorists are receiving instructions from their handlers sitting in Pakistan- occupied Kashmir or they are autonomous in their operations. What is clear is that the weapons they are using - US-made M4 assault rifles which are now awash in the arms bazaar in Pakistan - have given them an edge, more so because some of these are equipped with night vision devices.

M4, AK-47 and Afghanistan spillover

In a sense, the M4 in the 2020s is what the AK-47 was in the 1990s, when the security forces were still equipped with the unwieldy SLRs and police still carried .303 Lee Enfield rifles of WW-I vintage. It took a long time for Indian security forces to equip themselves with gear - rifles, helmets, bullet-proof vests - that was suited to anti-insurgency and counter-terrorism operations. The same is the case with the communications equipment. Back in the 1990s, while the terrorists used frequency hopping Kenwood sets, the security forces had vintage communication systems. Something similar is happening today.

When the Americans abandoned Afghanistan, it was known that some of the weapons they had left behind would find their way into India. But as is the wont of the security establishment, no one really prepared for the inevitable. For some strange reason - is it a false sense of chivalry? - there appears to be a reluctance to deploy frontline weapon systems - drones, helicopters, etc. - to hunt down terrorists. It is almost as though these are being saved for some other day. Even as the security forces brace to carry out another Operation Sarp Vinash in Jammu, it is important that the security strategy be reviewed. Use Village Defence Councils but at least provide them with better weapons than outdated .303 rifles. Use the latest technologies available to gain an advantage over the terrorists and take them out with minimal loss of personnel. There is no chivalry in sacrificing our own forces because we want to convince the world that we fight like gentlemen against barbarians. Ensure that the insertion of new troops in Jammu is not by pulling out troops from Kashmir and reducing the pressure on terrorists in the Valley. Most of all, politicians and generals need to stop declaring premature victories and/or underestimating, downplaying the terrorist threat.