India-Brazil Ties | In Lula, New Delhi has a reliable friend

Brazil President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva. (Image courtesy: AFP/File)

When India’s constitutional office-holders such as the Vice President or the Lok Sabha Speaker visit Latin America, this country’s television anchors invariably pose the question whether they will discuss terrorism with their hosts in the Western hemisphere. The question is also asked of expert panelists who are invited to television studios to discuss such high-level visits.

This is done partly by habit because counter-terrorism is at the core of India’s external affairs. In part, it is because India’s relations with Latin America mostly lack substance unlike relations with North America by contrast. Anchors, who have to fill their allotted airtime for such visits, therefore, have little else to ask. However, Brazil, which will be the cynosure of the world on January 1, when the widely-admired Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva is sworn in as Brazil’s President for the third time, is an exception. Of all the Latin American countries, India’s relations with Brazil are the strongest, and potentially the most propitious.

When it comes to terrorism, Brazil offers a picture that is vastly different from India. Acts of terror are virtually unknown in Brazil: airport security has been minimal even after the September 11 attacks in New York and the Pentagon, when almost every country imposed draconian airport restrictions. Armed robberies are not uncommon, but these are economic crimes, unrelated to extremism or politics. Unfortunately, Brazil is entering the new year with political terrorism weighing heavily on the minds of its fun-loving population. For this, outgoing President Jair Bolsonaro — who is admired by many Indians for the wrong reasons — is solely responsible.

At the time of writing this, Brasilia, the country’s archetypal capital, is reeling under bomb scares ahead of Lula’s inauguration. Bolsonaro has followed in the footsteps of Donald Trump, the immediate past President of the United States of America, spreading doubts about the integrity of Brazil’s presidential elections, which he lost to Lula in two rounds.

Similar to the insurrection in Washington in which the US Congress was attacked with fatal consequences a fortnight before Joe Biden’s inauguration, Bolsonaro’s supporters have been burning buses, blocking highways, and disrupting parts of the economy. They have set up armed camps near the army headquarters urging the military to stage a coup. Fortunately, the army has ignored such calls. Angry and frustrated protestors then mounted an invasion of the national police headquarters on December 12.

Like the followers of Venezuela’s late President Hugo Chavez who call themselves ‘Chavistas’, Brazil’s political glossary has a new term: ‘Bolsonaristas’. They are armed, and are determined that Lula will not be sworn in as President. On Christmas Eve, a leader of the Bolsonaristas with the highly suggestive name of George Washington de Oliveira Sousa was arrested for plotting to explode a bomb near the capital’s airport. Since then, the city has been on edge and robots have disposed of backpacks and packages suspected of containing explosive devices. Such fears are new to Brazil. But Bolsonaro’s legacy will be that his successor will have to deal firmly with the challenge of a never-before radicalised society.

As soon as he came to power, Bolsonaro started liberalising Brazil’s tough laws on gun ownership. The result is that during his four-year presidential tenure, the number people who legally possess firearms has increased by six times.

In the recently concluded, dual-round election, such Brazilians voted for Bolsonaro because they have also seen their prosperity rise under the Right-wing President’s rule. Agriculture has thrived in recent years and the boom has triggered ancillary businesses, especially in farming-related manufacturing. Chinese have been buying up every commodity that Brazil has to offer, bringing unprecedented prosperity to small rural towns.

Bolsonaro is down, but not out. He has not conceded defeat, and in his only comments on the election almost 40 days after Lula’s narrow victory, said: “We are going to win.”

When Prime Minister Narendra Modi meets Lula as President, they will, therefore, have one more subject on their agenda — domestic terrorism. India is well-placed to advice Brazil on terrorism although terror in India is mostly from across its borders. This week in Brasilia, authorities attempting to secure Lula’s swearing-in celebrations, have mostly relied on human intelligence to thwart subversion by Bolsonaristas. ‘Humint’ or human intelligence is India’s strength unlike the US, which uses technology for counter-terrorism. The superiority of humint over high-tech in foiling terror plots was evident in the failure of the US Federal Bureau of Investigation and other agencies to spot or stop the perpetrators of the September 11 attacks, who carefully avoided even basic technology while plotting.

Indians know Brazil for its celebrated Carnival, the arousing Samba, and the immortal Pele and Ronaldinho. Indians also have the experience of managing large events such as the Kumbh Mela and challenging undertakings like the Amarnath Yatra, by-and-large safely considering the terrorist threats the country faces. Brazil successfully hosted the football World Cup twice — in 1950 and in 2014. Another World Cup in Brazil will not take place any time soon, but football is played in every corner of that country, and help in counter-terrorism in the sports arena will be a priority under changed circumstances.

India must invite Lula to visit New Delhi soonest. He is reliable friend, who was last in India in 2012 as former President to receive the Indira Gandhi Prize for Peace, Disarmament and Development. Brazil has been Chief Guest at India’s Republic Day thrice — Lula himself once in 2004. India will find other ways to honour him. India-Brazil friendship is today cemented by well-known acronyms such as G20, IBSA, BRICS, and G4. The coming four years of Lula’s presidency may add to these, and bring greater substance to bilateral relations.