In one momentary announcement, Sharad Pawar sends his party, rivals and allies to go figure a changed state of play

In 2014, the BJP broke off its decades-old alliance with the Shiv Sena and contested the Assembly polls on its own.

Eighty-two-year-old Sharad Pawar’s announcement yesterday that he was stepping down as the President of the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) 24 years after he founded the party, and paved the way for a generational change – which he had hinted at a few days ago – came as a stunning surprise.

It has the Maharashtra political pot simmering, yet again.

So profound was the impact of his decision – revealed towards the end of his speech, at an event to release the revised edition of his political biography “Lok Majhe Sangati” – that many of his trusted lieutenants could not hold back their tears. It took a while for the audience to react.

It’s true that by the evening, he was reported to have told the second line leaders that he would need two to three days for a rethink of his decision, this – upon the insistence of the cadres.

Taking Back NCP

Whatever the decision, the die has been cast. Pawar has clinched back the initiative in the state and his own party that he had seemed to have been steadily losing in the past few months.

If unpredictability had a name, it ought to be Sharad Pawar. His comrades and rivals must know.

In a 63-year-long political career – 56 of them in electoral politics – Pawar has seen many highs and lows, but never a dull moment. Generally, Pawar is not someone to take decisions in a huff – certainly not when the sight is veiled by emotions. So, his decision to step down as the NCP chief must be a well-calibrated strategy, a hint of which came from Pawar himself a few days ago, and later from his daughter and Baramati MP, Supriya Sule, about four days ago. That his wife, Pratibha Pawar, was on the stage with him was no coincidence – the family of course knew it.

The timing is not a puzzle – in Mumbai, the grapevine was that his party was headed for a split, with his nephew and former deputy chief minister Ajit Pawar in favour of joining hands with the BJP and heralding the party into new uncharted territory. Meanwhile, in New Delhi, parleys had begun to forge a new non-BJP opposition dispensation with as many parties as possible, with 2024 in sight.

Pawar Play: Many Birds, One Stone

The NCP patriarch has hit many birds with one stone: He has nipped in the bud any potential or unseen rebellion within his party, including any move that goes contrary to his own positions; and he has made himself available – and a tad more acceptable – for the opposition machinations. And, in a way, absolving himself of the day-to-day grind, he has placed himself above his own party.

In that sense, he won’t be the NCP chief formally – and yet, he remains its fountainhead.

Pawar’s speech yesterday – in which he took a freewheeling review of this and other important political developments – had two other important suggestions: One, in the three years that are left of his Rajya Sabha membership, he wants to focus on the country and state’s politics (so he’s not retiring) which includes grooming the party’s new leadership; and two, he won’t contest any elections after three years (in a way, he’s preparing for his last political hurrah).

That’s not all. If – and most likely that would be the case – Pawar chooses to stick to his decision and pragmatism dawns upon his party leaders and cadres (in line with Ajit Pawar’s speech to the workers during the high drama yesterday) the next big question is: Who, after Sharad Pawar?

The Great Maharashtra Political Churn

Again, there’s no rush to find that. Pawar himself suggested during his speech that a committee of senior and wide-ranging party leaders be constituted to select the new national president of the NCP. This would trigger fierce competition within the party that has never had such a race before. It’s not out of place to say that the NCP needs young and fresh legs to run around. Pawar does not have age on his side. The new leader won’t be anointed without a stamp of his approval. Either way – whether this is done immediately or put off for the time being – he has bought time with his decision to play his cards as some key developments loom over the state.

One, the Supreme Court will deliver its judgment on the case pertaining to the disqualification of the 16 Shiv Sena legislators among the 40 that joined hands with the BJP to topple the Uddhav Thackeray government last year. That would decide the fate of the incumbent Chief Minister Eknath Shinde and his government with the BJP. Until that is decided, the Pawar play has also doused water over any possibility of a split within the NCP; it would be politically suicidal for his MLAs to rebel – if at all – against the party; this would be seen as one against Sharad Pawar.

Lastly, yesterday’s drama, and what’s to ensue in the following days, would keep the NCP under media and public glare, and give it a chance to improve upon its image which has taken quite a battering because of the rumours of Ajit Pawar crossing over to the BJP.

Besides, for the NCP allies in the Maha Vikas Aghadi (Uddhav Sena and Congress) and the ruling BJP-Shinde Sena, Pawar has also sprung up what he loves: Confusion.

Jaideep Hardikar is a Nagpur-based journalist, a core team member of the People's Archive of Rural India, and the author of "Ramrao - The story of India's farm crisis". Views are personal and do not represent the stand of this publication.