Could Opposition unity over COVID-19 lead to political unity against BJP?

BJP

The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), which leads the coalition government at the Centre, appears to be nervous by a unity among anti-BJP opposition parties, albeit in the name of COVID-19. Could this be a harbinger of a larger political unity in later months?

This could be why the BJP’s central leadership, which was so far countering criticism about its government’s handling of the COVID-19 second wave, be it from former Prime Minister Manmohan Singh, or Congress leader Rahul Gandhi, and others, has now turned to its state leaders to counter the Opposition.

After 13 opposition parties, including four non-Congress Chief Ministers (West Bengal, Jharkhand, Maharashtra and Tamil Nadu) signed a letter critical of the Centre's COVID-19 management, former Maharashtra Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis fired off a reply to Congress interim-president Sonia Gandhi. Far from a cogent reply, it was a rather ill-advised litany of the faults of the Maharashtra government in its COVID-19 management.

Now what hurts the BJP the most in Maharashtra is the continuing unity of three ideologically-opposed parties in running a coalition government in the state. Against the odds the coalition has so far stood the various tests from the BJP in the state. Here the fear for the BJP is that if this experiment is successful it could set an example for similar anti-BJP coalitions in other states across India. Such unity could encourage disgruntled NDA allies to leave the coalition and also encourage soft allies or fence-sitter parties to move away from the BJP.

Unity Threat

The challenge for this political unity is that almost all the signatories to the COVID-19 letter are rivals of the Congress at the regional level. However, the Maharashtra Maha Vikas Aghadi experiment and the earlier failed Congress-Janata Dal Secular experiment in Karnataka — JDS leader former Prime Minister HD Deve Gowda is a signatory — prove that at a pinch, the Congress leadership, particularly Rahul Gandhi, can be persuaded to concede and a supporting role to the regional forces in the common interest of defeating the BJP.

Many in the Congress are of the view that the Trinamool Congress’ (TMC) resounding victory in the West Bengal assembly elections was part of that game plan wherein the grand old party forged a half-hearted alliance with the Left and diverted most of its votes to the TMC, even if it meant them losing all their seats in the state.

On the flip side, while the Congress always fares badly in a direct fight with the BJP, at the state level the BJP is unable to withstand the onslaught of the regional parties. So the fear is that a national medical emergency that has brought anti-BJP parties together, could well solidify and extend into a unity to safeguard the political health of the nation.

Strategy Backfire

Fadnavis’ letter to Sonia Gandhi has brought about a war of words with senior Congress leaders including former Chief Minister Ashok Chavan accusing Fadnavis of being more concerned about Gujarat than about Maharashtra. Here the BJP’s strategy of accusing the state government could backfire. The latest allegation by the BJP against the Congress is that of a ‘toolkit’ propagated by the Congress to tarnish the central government’s image and handling of the COVID-19 second wave. The Congress has denied the allegations, called the documents shared by BJP leaders as ‘forged’ and filed a complaint with the Delhi Police. If proven to be a forged document, this also could backfire on the BJP.

So far as COVID-19 goes, the Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation (BMC)’s efforts have already helped the city turn the corner and the BMC has also received a ringing endorsement from the Supreme Court for its exemplary COVID-19 management.

The BJP could only be weakening its own position by using a former chief minister against his state. The first test of this would be at the series of local self-government elections due in November, if they are held on schedule given how preoccupied the state infrastructure is in combating this wave of infections.

Drive A Wedge

Uttar Pradesh might be another test case where the Samajwadi Party has done better than the ruling BJP at the panchayat polls. For the 2022 state polls, instead of an alliance that might benefit neither, the Congress could go the West Bengal way and be a fringe player and pass on the advantage to the Samajwadi Party, thereby defeating the BJP.

The BJP’s knee jerk reaction with regard to the opposition letter is an indicator that it fears that this opposition unity could pave the way for clandestine agreements as was seen in West Bengal. The BJP’s efforts will be to drive a wedge among these parties and break this unity. It is another fact that most of these regional parties are doing relatively better in managing the pandemic in their respective states.

The BJP will have to find other ways to break the opposition unity. As a first step towards that the BJP could focus on improving its COVID-19 management in states where it is in power, and at the central level lay out a clear and convincing vaccination roadmap. Good performance by the BJP on this front takes away the reason for this unity among opposition parties.