Chhattisgarh Elections 2023: Exit polls suggest Congress ahead but the BJP is not out of contention

Chhattisgarh is seeing another close race with Congress having the edge

Exit polls for the assembly elections, conducted by various agencies for different news channels, are currently underway as this article is being published. The exit polls for Chhattisgarh were the first to be telecasted. Despite each news channel presenting different numbers for the contesting parties, a common thread emerges: the Congress is poised to return to power. However, considering the varying margins shown and the potential for errors acknowledged by surveying agencies, the complete dismissal of the BJP cannot be guaranteed.

India Today and AxisMyIndia's poll indicate Congress securing 40-50 seats, while the BJP is projected to attain 36-46 seats. ABP and CVoter's poll forecasts 41-53 seats for Congress and 36-48 seats for the BJP. The only agency predicting a clear win for Congress is Today's Chanakya, forecasting 57 (+/-8) seats for the Congress.

Former Chief Minister and BJP leader Dr. Raman Singh, a few days ago after the votes were cast, had predicted 52-54 seats for the BJP. Singh was confident that the BJP would form the government in the state. In response, the incumbent Chief Minister Bhupesh Baghel rebutted, stating that in the three elections that the BJP won in 2003, 2008, and 2013, their best performance was 52 seats. Meanwhile, Congress' best performance was in the last election of 2018 when it secured 68 seats. With byelections due to the passing away of three MLAs and one vacancy resulting from Deepak Baij, Chitrakote's MLA moving to Lok Sabha, Congress' tally rose to 71 out of a total of 90 seats. In 2018, the BJP secured 15 seats.

Regardless of what the exit polls suggest today, Congress appears set to win the election with 50+ seats. Considering the four previous assembly elections, it is evident that any party securing 50+ seats is likely to comfortably win the state. If Congress falls from its current tally of 71 seats to the 50s, it would be considered a poor performance, losing around 20 seats. On the other hand, BJP's performance would be deemed good if it manages to secure 35+ seats in the assembly, especially considering its grim outlook just a few months ago.

In this election, the BJP did not project a CM face and contested under collective leadership. Congress, on the other hand, has relied on Baghel's leadership and opinion polls before the election showed he enjoyed high popularity ratings. But just months before the election, the party shifted its stance, proceeding with collective leadership, exemplified by making TS Singh Deo the Deputy Chief Minister and changing the slogan from "Bhupesh hai toh Bharosa hai" to "Bharose ki Sarkaar." This strategy seems to have not worked well for the party, causing confusion among cadres and voters in Chhattisgarh, particularly Baghel's supporters.

Even if Congress regains power, it is uncertain if Baghel will secure a second term as Chief Minister. The party losing 20+ seats and facing corruption allegations against Baghel's close associates could potentially open the door for other contenders for the CM post. However, this does not imply that Baghel is lagging behind in the race; he still maintains a considerable lead.