Bangladesh: Sheikh Hasina triumphs again, but to what end?

Bangladesh Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina.

As expected, Shiekh Hasina’s Awami League has returned to power in Dhaka, with a heavy majority, for a consecutive fourth term. Like her last two terms, the mandate lacks credibility. There was neither much contest nor popular participation in this election.

Bangladesh is facing serious concerns on the economic front. The artificial stability on the political front may not help the cause.

In a rerun of the 2014 election, the principal Opposition party, Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), opted out of the 2024 election. Hundreds of their leaders and activists were rotting in jail. The third largest Jatiya Party entered a seat-sharing arrangement with the League. Even the 40 percent voter turnout was equivalent to 2014’s tally.

The election was held in 299 of the 300 seats. Official results are not yet available in full. According to local media, the League should win around 225 seats. Jatiya Party might bag 11 with the blessings of the Awami League. The remaining 55-60 would go to the independent candidates.

There are many ways to analyse the results. The low turnout would boost the morale of the Opposition. Bangladesh has been witnessing rising social tension and violence for some time. The trend may consolidate.

Among the positives, unlike the heavily rigged 2018 election, the polling was arguably free and fair in 2024. The proof lies in the shock defeats of more than a dozen of senior Awami leaders in the hands of wannabe independents.

In 2014, Awami League won more than half of the seats uncontested. This year at least three ministers, several central committee members and even the publicity secretary of the League lost the election.

Also defeated are four top leaders of the Workers Party and Jatiya Samajtantrik Dal (JaSoD-Inu). These Leftist parties were living at the mercy of Hasina and were allegedly legitimising the ruling dispensation.

Everyone knows who these “independents” are. Under normal circumstances, they would have contested for the Opposition. And, that takes one to the question of what would have been the result had BNP joined the election.

The question will keep dogging the nation in the days to come and may add to its economic uncertainty – marked by depleting foreign exchange reserves, high inflation and the falling price of Taka vis-à-vis the dollar in the kerb market. From $48 billion in 2021, Dhaka had $17 billion in forex reserves in December 2023. The central bank resisted further decline through open market purchases and fresh restrictions on spending.

Pratim Ranjan Bose is an independent columnist, researcher, and consultant. His X handle is @pratimbose. Views are personal and do not represent the stand of this publication.