Are old fault lines in the Middle East opening up?

The inability of the Arab states to have a ceasefire in place three months into the attacks makes for poor optics.

The Hamas Israel war has now entered its third month with a brief hiatus for a humanitarian ceasefire.  Intense discussions between Israel and Hamas continued in Qatar, Israeli hostages held by Hamas were being released, as were Palestinian prisoners held in Israeli jails, many of them without trial for a prolonged period of time. But Hamas broke the tacit understanding and Israel resumed its relentless bombardment as well as ground operations in the Gaza Strip. And on December 8 the US once again vetoed a UN Security Council resolution for a humanitarian ceasefire in Gaza and release of all hostages sponsored by the UAE.

It is difficult to gauge what exactly Hamas expected when it carried out the indiscriminate and barbaric attacks on Israel on October 7.  For till now it has brought the people Hamas claims to serve only unprecedented death, despair, and destruction of an unprecedented scale.

The Qatar-Saudi Divide

Meanwhile, and inevitably, two tracks are visible in the Arab world regarding the conflict, something that has major implications for the rest of the world, and in particular India, which sees West Asia as part of its extended neighbourhood.

Read : India votes in favour of UNGA draft resolution demanding immediate ceasefire in Gaza

Qatar is clearly in the driver's seat, at least for now.  It hosts the Hamas leadership, has been bankrolling its rule in Gaza, and thereby has a certain leverage over the group. It is facilitating the discussions between Hamas and Israeli officials and till now under an agreement hammered out with great difficulty 105 hostages have been freed by Hamas, and 240 prisoners by Israel.

Qatar, a major non-NATO ally of the US, which also houses the US Central Command on its territory, has been eulogised by US and Israel for facilitating these negotiations. Others, however, have questioned its enormous support to Hamas. Qatar has denied prior knowledge of the Hamas attacks.  However, it was one of the few countries that not just refused to condemn Hamas' brutality as news of the 7 October attacks broke, but laid the blame immediately on Israel.

The other track is the one being pursued by Saudi Arabia, the leader of the Arab and Muslim world.  The Saudis, together with the UAE, had immediately condemned the Hamas attacks on Israel. As Israel mounted its disproportionate response on the Gaza Strip, where to date 17,000 people are said to have been killed, at least half of them women and children, the Saudis also condemned Israel's actions, called for a ceasefire and the resumption of the process to work towards a two-state solution – Israel and Palestine living side by side.

However, the kingdom also went about hosting its scheduled activities – prime amongst them being the annual Future Investment Initiative conference, also known as "Davos in the Desert". Only after almost a month of Israel’s onslaught on Gaza, did the Saudis convene an extraordinary summit of the Arab League and of the Islamic Conference.

Palestine-Israel-Hamas Questions For Arabs

An Arab Islamic Ministerial Committee delegation is now touring Western capitals to shore up support for a ceasefire, continuation of humanitarian aid to Gaza, and to find a way back to the negotiating table for Israelis and Palestinians, for the realisation of the two state solution.  What is striking is that in an interview in Washington DC recently,  Saudi foreign minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan Al Saud said, "We are committed to making peace, including supporting peace with Israel."

One of the reasons for Hamas' attacks, as the group itself said, was to derail the normalisation process between Israel and Saudi Arabia, and which would have got the latter US defence guarantees as well. This is further explained by the complicated relationship that Hamas has with Saudi Arabia. In spite of earlier support, the kingdom, along with Gulf allies like the UAE and Egypt brook no patience with violent islamist groups, at least since the Arab Spring began.  Inside the kingdom the authorities had begun clamping down on Hamas members and their fundraising efforts since at least 2019.

Support for such Islamist extremist groups had been a major reason for the blockade imposed on Qatar by Saudi Arabia, UAE and Egypt in 2017. The blockade had since been lifted and diplomatic relations between both sides re-established.

However, the current carnage in Gaza will make it difficult to pursue normalisation of relations with Israel. The inability of the Arab states to have a ceasefire in place three months into the attacks makes for poor optics. Meanwhile, Qatar marches ahead. The old faultlines, so carefully papered over, may once again be opening up in the Middle East.

Aditi Bhaduri is a journalist and political analyst. Views are personal, and do not represent the stance of this publication.