Nifty may find trend-decider at 19,350 points, crucial support at 19,200–19,180: Experts
For the positional traders, 19,350 could be the trend-decider, above which the market could bounce back till 19,450 and 19,575 levels. On the other hand, selling pressure is likely to accelerate if the index trades below 19,230 and below the same, the market could slip till 19,150-19,100
The Indian equity markets ended flat with profit-booking extending for the fifth straight week ended August 25 amid volatility due to mixed global cues, rising US bond, poor monsoon, RBI meeting minutes' concern over rising inflation and cautious mood ahead of Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole. Here's a collection of views from experts on the expected market dynamics for this week.
2/10
Arvinder Singh Nanda, Senior Vice President, of Master Capital Services | Global and domestic macroeconomic data, the trend in global stock market, crude oil prices, global cues, movement of the rupee against the dollar, investment by FIIs and DIIs will be in focus. Some macroeconomic key events that will drive the market in the coming week are API Weekly crude oil, US GDP data, US unemployment rate, US manufacturing PMI, Initial Jobless claims, India’s Q1 GDP, RIL AGM, S&P India global manufacturing index and forex reserves data. Nifty prices fell for the fifth consecutive week, resulting in a reduction of approximately 4% from their peak value. Prices are currently trading near a 10-week EMA, which had been acting as a crucial support for a long. A decisive breach below the 19200 mark would signal a continuation of this downward trend, potentially driving prices towards the range of 19,000-18,900, aligning closely with the 21-week EMA.
3/10
Jatin Gedia – Technical Research Analyst at Sharekhan by BNP Paribas | On the weekly charts, the Nifty has closed negative for the fifth consecutive week which also indicates there is a lack of buying interest. Weekly, daily, and hourly momentum indicators have a negative crossover which is a sell signal. Thus, both price and momentum indicators suggest a continuation of the fall. Overall, we shall continue to maintain our negative outlook on the index for a target of 19,100. Crucial support is placed at 19,200 – 19,180, while immediate hurdle is at 19,360 – 19,400. The pullback rally in the Bank Nifty has fizzled out at the 44,900 – 45,000 zone, where resistance in the form of the 50% Fibonacci retracement level was placed. The daily and the hourly momentum indicators provide divergent signal and hence a consolidation is likely. The range of consolidation is likely to be 44,800 – 43,900.
4/10
Amol Athawale, Vice President - Technical Research, Kotak Securities | The Nifty witnessed profit-booking near the 20-day SMA (Simple Moving Average). After a long time, the index has closed below the 50-day SMA which is largely negative. For the positional traders, 19,350 could be the trend-decider, above which the market could bounce back till 19,450 and 19,575 levels. On the other hand, selling pressure is likely to accelerate if the index trade below 19230 and below the same, the market could slip till 19150-19100. For Bank Nifty, on the lower side 44,000 would be the key support zone, while 44,750 or 50 and 20 day SMA and 45,000 could act as immediate hurdle areas for the bulls. Below 44,000, it could retest the level of 43,750-43,500.
Aditya Gaggar Director of Progressive Shares | On the weekly chart, Nifty50 has formed an Inverted Hammer candlestick pattern which indicates a potential reversal of the trend, and on the daily chart, the Index managed to close above the strong support level of 19,250. The same candlestick pattern was spotted in the weekly chart of BankNifty as well. The immediate support for the Nifty is at 19,200 while the higher side is capped at 19,470, and in the case of BankNifty, the support is 43,600, while resistance stood at 44,960. Any uptick in the Nifty and BankNifty will be accompanied by the hidden bullish divergence in the RSI which is an extremely bullish sign.
6/10
Rupak De, Senior Technical analyst at LKP Securities | The Nifty index has declined to a significant moving average (55EMA) support level. The sentiment is expected to stay bearish as long as the index remains below 19450, where the 21-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) is positioned on the daily timeframe. If the index decisively falls below 19240, it could potentially lead the Nifty towards the 19000 mark.
7/10
Devarsh Vakil, Deputy Head of Retail Research, HDFC Securities | The Nifty breached its 50 days SMA for the first time since April 2023. The index also breached the previous swing low support. Violation of 50-day SMA indicates higher probability of bearish trend to continue in the Index. Next support for the Nifty is seen in the zone of 19,050-19,100. On the upside 50-day SMA, placed at 19,375 would act as a resistance now. Short-term trend of the Nifty is likely to remain bearish till it closed above 19,375.
8/10
Prashanth Tapse, Senior VP (Research), Mehta Equities | Bets for more Fed rate hikes continue to boost bears confidence ahead of Powells’ speech at the annual Jackson Hole Symposium event. Dalal Street will most likely witness another listless trading session in Monday’s trade in the backdrop of benchmark Nifty ending on an extremely negative note. Further, massive sell-off also cannot be ruled out amid deteriorating technical and fundamental catalysts that are likely to dent sentiments.
Apurva Sheth, Head of Market Perspectives & Research, SAMCO Securities | The Nifty closing the week below the support level of 19,300 suggests that bears are likely to have an upper hand going in to the monthly expiry next week. If 19,300 is not crossed, then there is a high probability of bears pushing the index closer to 18,800-19,000 levels. These levels will act as very strong support for the markets as they worked as a previous high resistance earlier.
10/10
Santosh Meena, Head of Research, Swastika Investmart | The Nifty index has slipped beneath its 20-day and 50-day moving averages (DMAs), signaling a short-term bearish bias. Key support levels to monitor are 19,191 and 18,888. On the upside, the 19,400–19,500 range emerges as a critical resistance zone, the breach of which could pave the way for positive momentum.
