Taking Stock: Last-hour selling pushes Nifty below 19,550, Sensex down 610 points

Investor wealth plummeted by Rs 2.4 lakh crore.

The Indian equity benchmarks ended almost a percent lower on September 28, as crude prices spiked to their highest level this year, NSE indices rejig coincided with F&O expiry and weak global cues pulled the market down, wiping out Rs 2.40 lakh crore of investor wealth in a day.

The 30-pack Sensex closed 0.92 percent, or 610.37 points, down at 65,508.32, while the broader Nifty declined 192.90 points, or 0.98 percent, to 19,523.55. Market breadth favoured declined. About 1,524 shares advanced, 2,007 declined, and 136 remained unchanged.

The market has been under pressure for a few days and the trend continued led by selling by foreign institutional investors (FIIs). India VIX, the measure of volatility and fear in the market, jumped sharply.

"The selling was broad-based, as investors are on alert given the rise of oil prices. If crude continues to stay above the 90 USD level, it will be a threat to inflation and boil the operational margins,” said Vinod Nair, Head of Research at Geojit Financial Services.

Globally, the US GDP data and the Federal Reserve chief’s speech would be watched carefully as they set the trend. Currently, the combination of higher interest rates and US bond yields are influencing FIIs to stay in the selling mode, he added.

The decline was widespread on the sectoral front, with IT and FMCG names among the top losers. The broader indices, too, mirrored the benchmarks. The midcap index was down over a percent and smallcaps too declined.

Factors that hurt the market

Crude on the boil

Index	Prices	Change	Change%
Sensex	84,950.95	388.17	+0.46%
Nifty 50	26,013.45	103.40	+0.40%
Nifty Bank	58,962.70	445.15	+0.76%

Nifty 50 26,013.45 103.40 (0.40%)

Mon, Nov 17, 2025

• 1D
• 5D
• 1M
• 3M
• 6M
• 1Y
• 2Y

Biggest Gainer	Prices	Change	Change%
Eternal	309.55	5.80	+1.91%

Biggest Loser	Prices	Change	Change%
TMPV	372.70	-18.50	-4.73%

Best Sector	Prices	Change	Change%
Nifty PSU Bank	8491.65	91.75	+1.09%

Worst Sector	Prices	Change	Change%
Nifty Metal	10495.90	1.10	+0.01%

US oil futures jumped to their highest in more than a year as a drop in crude stocks in the United States added to worries over tight global supplies from OPEC+ output cuts. US West Texas Intermediate crude futures (WTI) were up 24 cents at $93.92 a barrel, after rising above $95 earlier in the session for the first time since August 2022. The benchmark Brent crude futures were up 36 cents to $96.91 after rising to their highest since November earlier in the session.

Rising crude prices are bad news not just for India’s fiscal math as the country imports 85 percent of its needs but will also lead to higher raw material costs for industries such as plastic, paints and pharma. Companies will feel the pinch as profitability and margins will likely suffer, worsening the mood on Dalal Street.

NSE indices rejig

As the semi-annual review of NSE indices comes into effect from end of the day, traders positioned themselves for inflows and outflows in respective stocks. Those still part of the indices but on the way out were dumped leading to a drop in prices.

According to Nuvama, NTPC is likely to see outflows of $45 million, followed by Page Industries ($28 million), HDFC AMC ($25 million), IndusInd Bank ($23 million), ACC ($19 million), Indus Tower ($14 million), and Adani Ports ($14 million).

F&O Expiry

Volatility shot through the roof with the India VIX rising nearly 11 percent to close at 10.68. Though a bit of volatility was expected given that September contracts were expiring, the sharp moves towards the close were a surprise.

“The prevailing weakness in heavyweights across sectors combined with feeble global cues is weighing on the sentiment. After the failed attempt to reclaim 19,750, we expect the Nifty to inch further lower and test 19,400, however, the major support is at 19,200,” said Ajit Mishra, SVP - Technical Research, Religare Broking Ltd. Participants should align their trades accordingly and focus more on risk management, he added.

Sectors and Stocks

All sectoral indices ended the the red, led by Nifty IT which slumped over 2 percent. Nifty media, Nifty FMCG, Nifty Auto and Nifty Consumer Durables fell over a percent each.

Among Nifty50 constituents, L&T was the top gainer that rose over 2 percent on positive brokerage notes and hit an all time high. Bharti Airtel, ONGC and Coal India were the other top gainers.

Tech Mahindra was the top loser, down over 4 percent. Asian Paints, which will likely see a sharp rise in raw material costs, plunged about 4 percent as well. LTIMindtree and M&M were the other top losers.

Outlook for September 29

Rupak De, senior technical analyst at LKP Securities

The Nifty has experienced a significant correction as it was unable to stay above 19,750. On the daily timeframe, the most recent candle has engulfed the bodies of the preceding few days' candles, which suggests a negative sentiment. The prevailing sentiment continues to favour selling during rallies.

The Nifty may decline towards 19,250, with immediate support at 19,450. Resistance is positioned at 19,600.

Nagaraj Shetti, Technical Research Analyst, HDFC Securities 

The Nifty broke below the crucial weekly support of 10-week EMA at 19,560 and closed lower. The 10-week EMA has been offering support in the last few months, resulting in decent upside bounces from the said support. Having slipped below the support, the Nifty can slide to its next support of 20-week EMA, which is placed at around 19,230. Immediate resistance is at 19,700.

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